Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes
College Football Prediction and Analysis on the Total
Whenever I write about the Dukes, in my head I always think about/hear Billy Ray Valentine, as he’s being strangled by Winthorpe, “It was the Dukes, it was the Dukes.”
Whenever I write about the Trojans I always think about . . . never mind.
As is my tendency, I digress.
Let’s get back to this week’s pick and analysis.
And talking about tendencies, let’s take a look at one of Troys, and one of Joe Public’s too (nice segue there, eh?)
Troy games have a tendency to stay Under the total. They’re just 1-6 Ov/Un.
And Joe Public LOVES to jump on already established trends, a tendency that contributes to the oft quoted stat, “90-95 percent of sports bettors lose.”
That 1-6 stat is not a good look for a bettor buying the Over but remember, the Books adjust.
They see trends developing.
They know Joe Public LOVES to jump on trends.
And, they adjust.
When a team keeps covering as a Fav their lines start going higher. Similarly, too many Overs or Unders will see line corrections.
It’s because of Reversion Towards the Mean.
Sooner or later it ALWAYS kicks in, and stats inevitably level out.
Troy totals average 53 PPG this season. Surprisingly (to me) this game opened at only a point lower than that average.
And partly because of Troy’s 1-6 record on Ov/Un’s it’s not unexpectedly been dropping. (“Joe P. LOVES jumping on trends.”)
I can get this one right now at 49, four points fewer than that avg. of 53.
Using 49 as the total, Troy goes from 1-6 to a slightly better 2-5.
J Mad is 5-3 Ov/Un.
At 49, they’re an even better 6-2.
Here’s why I’m on the Over in this game.
In a previous article from this week I gave out a play that qualified for one of my Ov/Un handicapping models.
MT has a record of 5-14 overall.
On Unders it’s 4-13, a very profitable 76% Fade.
The first game I wrote up was Saturday’s Navy/ND play because the total was going up and I wanted to buy it and post it for readers before it went any higher.
But by Saturday the record won’t be 4-13 anymore because on Thursday night Troy at James Madison is the second of the three games that qualified for the spot this week.
In addition to the 13-4 Fade supporting my buy I also have an additional stat.
The 4-13 record is a league-based record encompassing all teams.
Looking at the record for team specific stats (what’s the record for a particular team in the spot?) I see James Madison has already qualified once and the Dukes are 0-1.
In Week Four, my MT math model/method/system said James Madison and Old Dom would stay Under.
The number was 44.
They combined for 66.
Over, by 22 points.
One more angle on this game.
From my column last week with my pick on the Rams over the Raiders:
“App St scored a TD near the end of the first half, cutting into the Duke’s lead. Up by just four points, J Mad gets the ball back with more than a minute left on the clock. And TWO timeouts.
Head coach Billy Napier calls for a standard run on first down, nothing fancy, nothing tricky.
Then he has his offense use up the entire play clock before running his last play of the half.
He didn’t even TRY to score.”
Watching on TV I thought, “THAT decision is going to come back and bite you on the ass.”
And it did.
The Dukes lost in OT by three, and fell from the ranks of the undefeated as 7-0 became 7-1.
How much sleep do you think Napier lost that night, reliving the wasted opportunity at the end of the first half, the time outs which became worthless when he carried them into the locker room, and the time he left on the game clock, squandered.
Off that painful loss and knucklehead usage of the game clock, I expect to see a much more aggressive Napier on his play calling while on offense (ranked 18th in the country, averaging 35 PPG) against Troy and their defense (ranked at number 70, giving up 26 PPG.)
The 49 is rare, most betting shops have it at 49′ but the line’s moving in my favor so there’s no reason to buy it today (Wednesday.)
My play:
Troy/J Madison Over (wait to buy)
