Navy at Notre Dame
College Football Prediction
I have never been and never will be able to do a write-up/analysis on a Notre Dame game without hearing in my head Olson Johnson’s famous quote from Blazing Saddles:
“All right, we’ll take the (can’t say that word) and the (can’t say that one either) but we DON’T WANT the Irish!”
But I digress.
Saturday morning I’m playing the Over in Navy/Notre Dame.
Because, reasons.
Navy finds themselves in troubled waters this week.
They’re facing a pissed off Notre Dame team.
Last week the Irish went into the BYU game undefeated at 6-0.
They came out at 6-1.
They came into the game ranked number two.
They came out ranked number five.
I don’t know if this makes for a pissed off Irish defense that’s going to try to hold Navy’s scoring down to single digits, or a pissed off offense that’s going to jack up the score.
They lost to the former polygamist guys by a score of 28-24.
Coming into the game the defense was giving up just 6.6 PPG.
Against BYU they gave up FOUR times that many points!
So I imagine it’s the defense that’s going to be pretty pissed off.
It also doesn’t help that they gave up a game-winning TD with just over a minute left in the game.
So yeah, I imagine the defense is going to be righteously pissed, which doesn’t bode well for someone taking the Over and needing points from Navy.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame averages 44 PPG. Against BYU they scored 20 points fewer (Yes, FEWER than, not LESS than!)
So hopefully the offense will be pissed and determined to run up the score.
The game opened at 53′ and is rising.
The board is split between 56′ and 57, which means by taking the Over I’m breaking one of my Cardinal rules for buying:
“If the line has moved three or more points against you stay off the game.”
To justify breaking one of my rules I went looking at some recent history hoping for something to support my play on the Over.
Last year they combined for 59, the year before they combined for 65, both time enough points scored to cover this week’s number.
Good news for an Over player this week, eh?
Maybe, maybe not.
Both of those Navy teams got slaughtered by an average of 38 points. And both of those Navy teams were better than this season’s version.
They were 11-2 last year.
They were 10-3 the year before.
This year they’re just 2-5, nowhere near as good as the Navy teams that still only averaged 12 PPG versus the Notre Dame defense in their two previous contests.
Both times, Navy got torpedoed, losing 49-10 and 51-14.
Those final scores are making me want to take a look at Notre Dame. The current number is -30, a number they covered their past two games against Navy.
Navy’s team total is being offered at 13′, maybe make a play on the Under?
But my main reason for breaking one of my Cardinal rules and taking the Over is because it fits the same spot I used last week for a W on the Over in Syracuse/North Carolina.
My MT model says the game stays Under.
The record for this spot is 4-13, a 76% Fade.
My play:
Navy/ND Ov 56′.
Recap: 2-1
Record: 15-14
Review: Hit with V Tech + 3 (they won SU) and Syr/NC Over. Missed with the Rutgers game Ov, had 58′, game landed on 56.
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for updates throughout the week but especially Saturday morning. There are two other games that qualify for this 4-13, 76% Fade that I’m using with Navy/ND.
I may buy them, I may not, but I’ll DEFINITELY list them in the Forum for anyone who might be looking for angles on those two games.
