Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Saturday, October 31, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Oklahoma State is an 8.5-point road favorite at Iowa State with a total of 57.5. My play is Oklahoma State -8.5.
“It’s gonna be cold, wet. We’re playing on grass, it’ll be slippery.” That’s Eric Morris, sounding like a man bracing for a bad night in Ames. I hear the worry. I just don’t think it matters, because the team on the other sideline can’t score.
From 1-11 to the Top 25, and nobody has slowed this offense down
A year ago Oklahoma State went 1-11. Morris showed up from North Texas with 91 newcomers, the most in major-college history, and brought his quarterback with him. Drew Mestemaker is throwing for 332 yards a game, second in the country, with 17 touchdowns and two picks over his last five starts. The Cowboys have scored 30 or more six straight times and just piled up 598 yards on Colorado without a turnover.
This isn’t empty volume, either. OSU gains 7.33 yards a play, fifth in the nation, and it stays on schedule about as well as anyone in the Big 12. It also has weapons everywhere: Caleb Hawkins runs for over 100 yards a game, and Wyatt Young and Justin Bowick each pile up close to 90 receiving yards a week.
Iowa State’s secondary is held together with tape
Now look at who’s trying to cover those receivers. Iowa State gives up nearly six yards a play, which ranks 104th nationally. Starting corner Beni Ngoyi missed the Arizona game, safety Braden Awls has been out all year with a torn ACL, and safety Drew Surges has been fighting an arm injury. Noah Fifita just completed 21 of his first 23 throws against this group. Mestemaker is better than Fifita.
Iowa State’s own coordinator didn’t sugarcoat it. “They’re gonna get some,” Jesse Bobbit said of the Cowboys’ big plays. “We’ve gotta find ways to get some, too.”
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Where are Cyclone points supposed to come from?
That’s the part of the plan I can’t find. Iowa State’s offense is stuck in the mud: 112th in the country at producing successful plays, among the slowest-paced teams in the sport, and fresh off a three-point night in Tucson. The Cyclones ran 31 times for 52 yards. “Embarrassing,” Jimmy Rogers called it, and he wasn’t wrong.
Rogers pulled Jaylen Raynor at halftime for Connor Moberly, then went right back to Raynor this week, calling him the best leader on the team. Loyalty is admirable. It’s not a game plan. In four games against ranked opponents, Iowa State has scored 13, 17, 10 and 3. Aiden Flora is a legit talent at 7.0 yards a carry, but Arizona held him to 36 yards and nobody else stepped up.
Oklahoma State’s defense isn’t great. It is good enough to face a team that can’t finish drives. It also gets stronger as games go on. The Cowboys score 23.1 points per second half, the best mark in the country, and they blanked Colorado after the break.
The case against laying the wood
This series has bitten Oklahoma State lately. Iowa State won the last two, including a 20-13 grinder in Stillwater last November where the Cyclones ran it 48 times and held OSU to 27 rushing yards. The Cowboys have been sloppy on the road, too, losing at Tulsa and Houston. They start slow, too, and their defense gives up first-quarter points at one of the worst rates in the country. And Morris is right about the turf: OSU hasn’t played on natural grass all season, and the forecast carries a real chance of rain. A wet, sloppy, low-possession game is exactly how an 8.5-point favorite ends up winning by six.
One projection model has this closer to a 4.5-point game, so I’m not pretending it’s a lock. I’d lay it through -9.5 and stop at -10.
Projected score: Oklahoma State 34, Iowa State 20. The Cyclones hang around for a half, then Mestemaker finds the soft spots in that secondary one more time than Iowa State can answer.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -8.5
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