Missouri at Arkansas
Saturday, October 31, 2026
7:45 PM ET, Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Missouri is a 10-point favorite at Arkansas, and the total is 49.5. My play is Under 49.5.
“We are somewhat predictable in the red zone.” That’s Eli Drinkwitz on Tuesday, and he’s right. Missouri moves the ball. It just doesn’t finish drives. Pair that with an Arkansas offense that can barely run, and you get a Halloween night rivalry game that looks a lot more like 26-16 than a shootout.
Mizzou’s field-goal problem is real. The Tigers turn only about half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, according to the AP’s count, and even counting field goals they rank 131st nationally in red-zone scoring. The Ole Miss loss was the low point. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards, Missouri couldn’t cash in two first-half trips inside the Ole Miss 10, and the final was 31-3. Drinkwitz spent the bye trying to fix it, but that’s a two-week fix for a seven-week problem, and the drives will still stall. Missouri is also one of the slowest first-quarter starters in the country, so these games don’t tend to take off early.
Arkansas can’t run, and Missouri won’t let it. Ryan Silverfield’s first team averages about 3.4 yards a carry, among the worst in the FBS. Missouri allows 3.2 per carry, one of the best marks out there. The Razorbacks gain just under 5 yards per play overall, near the bottom of the country, and they’re scoring just 8 points per first half, which also ranks near the bottom. KJ Jackson throws it plenty, and Chris Marshall (43 catches, 633 yards) is a real problem when healthy. But Marshall left the Vanderbilt game with a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play, though maybe not at full speed.
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The scripts point the same way. Missouri wants to hand it to Jamal Roberts, who leads the SEC with 867 rushing yards, and lean on its wide-zone game. As Silverfield put it, “they just keep running it.” That keeps the clock moving. The Tigers also protect the ball, at plus-one in turnover margin per game, so Arkansas probably won’t get many short fields. Arkansas is 2-5 to the Over this season, and Missouri is 3-4. The forecast calls for gusts in the mid-20s, too, which doesn’t help anybody throw it deep in the fourth quarter.
Rivalry history helps. Missouri has won nine of the last 10 in this series, and last year’s meeting in Fayetteville finished 31-17. That was 48 total points, and this year’s total is a point and a half higher.
Where this ticket gets hurt
The Arkansas defense is generous. It ranks 125th in third-down defense and gives up 8.6 yards per pass attempt. If Simmons finds his touchdown touch in Fayetteville instead of kicking field goals, Missouri can get to 35 on its own. Ahmad Hardy is another wild card. He practiced fully Monday for the first time since his May gunshot wound, but Drinkwitz flatly said, “I don’t know if he’ll be back for Arkansas.” Missouri has also lost both of its SEC road games, and an Arkansas team with momentum from the Vanderbilt win could turn this into a back-and-forth homecoming game. One special-teams score or a turnover deep in Tiger territory could undo a lot of good Under work.
Under 49 is still a bet for me. Once this falls to 48.5, I’m only leaning that way.
Projected score: Missouri 26, Arkansas 16
The Pick: Under 49.5
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