The BMW Championship
Date: September 06-09, 2012
Course: Crooked Stick Golf Club Carmel, IN
TV: The Golf Channel/NBC
by Evergreen of Predictem.com
The 2012 version of the FedExCup Playoffs has been hard to beat so far as the Barclays and Deutsche Bank events have turned out some the best golf of the year by the most notable stars on the PGA Tour.Rory McIlroy, Tiger and the rest head to Indiana this week for the third event in the Playoffs and Crooked Stick makes its return to the PGA in hosting the 2012 BMW Championship.McIlroy has surpassed Woods in just about every regard this year and it is the young star that takes top-billing in this field that features just the top-70 on the FedEx Points list.The online betting sites have Rory listed at or near 6 to 1 to win the event but Tiger is right there as always and his play has demonstrated that he is a threat to win every week, even if he is not a threat to return to his once dominating form.Of course, Rory and Tiger are paired together for the first two rounds but dont forget to watch all of the action behind them as players need to be in the top-30 in points to get into the Tour Championship in a few weeks.With only the top-70 in attendance, there will be no cut for this event and that will open up the chance for someone to mount a weekend charge at what could turn out to be a very high scoring tournament.
Crooked Stick has not hosted a PGA Tour event since 1991 when John Daly famously won the PGA Championship from the ninth alternate slot and the course remains pretty much in tact since then.Pete Dye has modestly made some changes to the nearly 7,600 yard layout but most every green is in its original location and the course is still a very playable one despite being quite lengthy.Crooked Stick played long in 1991 but certainly not long enough to hold back the likes of Daly and the bombers on Tour should have an advantage this week as all the trouble off the tee is visible to the players and the greens can be hit from just about anywhere.Look for the longest players on Tour to attack this par-72 course almost recklessly at times and all the players will have to take advantage of the par-5s to keep up in what promises to be a shootout.
Each week, we take a look at the golf sportsbooks and highlight a few players that we think are good bets to win it all.We make a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown the reasons why.We typically have a few head to head matches with picks there but the match-ups have been a little late in hitting the board, most likely due to the Monday finish at the Deutsche, so well be back with those next time around.There will undoubtedly be head to heads this week with the usual selection of prop bets, so check with the bookies as the event gets closer.Here are our picks to win the 2012 BMW Championship.
Short Favorite: Dustin Johnson (14 to 1 odds to win)
Dustin hasnt won a playoff event this year but hes been the most consistent with T3 and T4 finishes at the Barclays and Deutsche.Hes battled some nagging injuries this year but has missed only cut and can certainly shorten Crooked Stick with the 6thbest driving distance stat.Johnson ranks 26thin birdies and improves his scoring average to 9thwhich is a bit unusual for such a long player but a solid scrambling game keeps his mistakes to a minimum.Dustin isnt just a bomber as his overall stat sheet ranks 15thfor the all-around, making him a good pick to best this field of heavy-hitters.
Middle of the Road: Bubba Watson (40 to 1 odds to win)
If you need length off the tee, why look anywhere other than the Tour leader in driving distance?Bubba is probably what Daly could have been if he skipped all the off-course trouble and Watson could easily take down Crooked Stick like Big John did in 1991.Long with hitting it a mile, Watson turns in the 2ndbest greens hit percentage and that produces the 11thbest ballstriking stat.Bubba has been below average with the putter, ranking outside the top-160 in both strokes-gained and total putting but with no cut looming Friday, he can s take some time to find the pace and line on these greens.He will need a good if not great putting performance to win this week but everything else is in line for him to contend.
Longshot: Rickie Fowler (80 to 1 odds to win)
I really thought there would be better things for Rickie after he finally won his first event this year but the youngster has scuffled a bit since that win and is looking to get back on track.He could get it done this week as he ranks 10thin total driving and that will give him good looks at the Crooked Stick greens.Hes long enough to handle the course even if they go to the tips and his proximity numbers are better than his overall greens hit rank.If Rickie is firing darts this week, look for his name at or near the top the whole way.