The PGA Tour comes off a wet weekend at Royal Birkdale and lands in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open, where Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Aldrich Potgieter headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
3M Open Picks
TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota
Thursday, July 23 – Sunday, July 26, 2026
Purse: $8.8 million
The party’s over.
The four majors are in the books. Ryan Fox somehow beat Scottie Scheffler at Royal Birkdale (more on THAT in a minute), and now we’re back to the part of the PGA Tour schedule where a lot of the big names take a week off, kick their feet up, and let the rest of the guys fight for a paycheck.
Welcome to the 3M Open.
I know, I know. It doesn’t have the ring of “The Masters” or “The Open Championship.” But that’s why I like it. Weak fields, weak lines, and a course that hands out birdies like a bookie handing out juice – if you know where to look, you can find some money.
Let’s talk about the course first.
TPC Twin Cities is a par 72, 7,431-yard Arnold Palmer design with 27 water hazards. Which sounds like a big deal but really isn’t – the fairways are wide, the bentgrass greens are massive, and the field averages 19-under to win this thing. That’s not “tough test of golf” territory. That’s “if you can hit a wedge and read a putt, you can shoot 64” territory.
The stats that matter here?
Strokes Gained: Approach.
Greens in Regulation.
And a hot putter for four days.
Ball-striking is what wins this event, plain and simple. Four of the first five winners at TPC Twin Cities gained over seven strokes on approach for the week. Kurt Kitayama gained 9.6 strokes on approach last year. Jhonattan Vegas did it in 2024. Lee Hodges did it in 2023.
If you can’t hit an iron this week, don’t bother.
Weather forecast is 95 degrees on Sunday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Because of course it is.
Nothing says “Minnesota in July” like watching guys sweat through their FootJoys and then having play suspended for two hours because someone spotted a cloud.
Onto the picks.
Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+270)
I hate laying this kind of number.
I hate it.
Every fiber of my handicapping being tells me to fade a guy at +270 in a 144-man field.
But then I look at Scheffler and I think, “Yeah, but he’s Scottie Scheffler.”
The World Number One is making his first-ever appearance at this event, which sounds like a red flag but actually isn’t – Scheffler doesn’t need course history. He led the ENTIRE field at Royal Birkdale in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and was second in SG: Approach.
The only reason he didn’t win the British Open is because his putter went cold and he finished 60th in the field in SG: Putting.
Here’s the thing though – this week he’s not putting on links greens covered in fescue. He’s putting on huge, well-manicured bentgrass greens where the ball actually goes where you aim it.
You do the math.
If you’re a favorite guy, Scheffler is your guy.
Mid-Range Pick: Tony Finau (+4700)
Anytime I can get Tony Finau at 47-1 at a tournament where he’s already won and finished top-10 three other times, I’m buying it.
Let’s look at his 3M Open resume:
2020: T23
2021: T3
2022: 1st
2023: T7
2024: T28
2025: T12
That’s every year in the field, every year making the cut, and the third-most strokes gained at this course of ANY player teeing it up this week.
The knock on Finau in 2026 is that he’s having a lackluster year overall. That’s fair. But guys like Finau who eat up easy setups tend to show up when the setup is easy. And this is about as easy as PGA Tour setups get.
Finau’s driving distance and iron play are perfect for this track. He can carry the water hazards off the tee and then take dead aim at the fat parts of the huge bentgrass greens all week.
At 47-1, you’re getting a former champion with the third-best tournament history in the field. That’s a steal.
Longshot: Aldrich Potgieter (+5700)
Here’s what you need to know about Aldrich Potgieter.
He’s 21 years old.
He’s from South Africa.
And he hits a golf ball 330.6 yards on average.
That’s the longest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Longer than Bryson. Longer than Rory. Longer than everyone.
TPC Twin Cities isn’t a bomber’s paradise in the traditional sense – it’s not Kapalua – but it IS a course where you can be very aggressive off the tee if you’re willing to gamble over water. And when a guy hits it 330 yards on average, “gambling over water” isn’t much of a gamble. He can carry it 350 in the air when he needs to.
Potgieter made the cut at The British Open last week. Two weeks before that, he finished T8 at the Canadian Open. His game is trending in the right direction and he’s playing in a field that’s a huge step down in difficulty from what he just faced at Royal Birkdale.
At 57-1 for a young bomber in this kind of setup?
Yes please.
My Plays
Scottie Scheffler (+270) to win
Tony Finau (+4700) to win
Aldrich Potgieter (+5700) to win
If you’re playing a top-10 or top-20 market, Finau and Potgieter both look great at those numbers too. Scheffler top-10 is basically free money but you’d have to lay -400 or worse to get it.
Good luck to everyone playing this week.
And to Scottie – keep it out of the water.
