Honda Classic Betting Analysis & Picks

by | Last updated Feb 22, 2023 | golf

Event: Honda Classic
Where: PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens
Watch: Golf Channel, NBC
When: Feb. 24-27

The PGA Tour hits the Sunshine State this week for the first of four Florida tournaments, the Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. Following a couple of big events out West the last couple of weeks, a diminished field that includes only four of the World Golf Rankings’ top 30 players will tee it up this week for shares of an $8.4 million purse.

Last week Jon Rahm, the hottest player on the planet right now, birdied two of the last five holes to pull away from Max Homa and win the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. This shouldn’t come as any surprise, considering Bovada lined Rahm as the favorite on its Genesis Invitational betting board at +800.

Homa, our top betting pick last week at +1800, placed second; Patrick Cantlay showed third; Will Zalatoris took fourth; Keith Mitchell finished fifth; Sahith Theegala, and Collin Morikowa tied for sixth; Matt Kuchar took eighth; and Jason Day, Gary Woodland and Adam Svensson tied for ninth.

However, most of those guys are not playing this weekend.

PGA National, home to this South Florida event since 2007, plays to a par-70 at around 7,140 yards, which may sound like a walk in the park. However, the average winning score here over the last five Honda Classics is “only” 9-under par.

Last year Austrian Sepp Straka birdied three of the last five holes on Sunday to shoot 66 and win the Honda Classic by a shot over Shane Lowry. Kurt Kitayama showed third; Daniel Berger finished fourth; Woodland and Alex Noren tied for fifth; Matthias Schwab and Chris Kirk tied for seventh; and Mitchell, Brian Stuard, John Huh, Lee Hodges, Sam Ryder, and Svensson tied for ninth.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best values on the board, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field for this week’s Honda Classic.

Bovada lists Sungjae Im as the favorite on its Honda Classic betting board at +850. Lowry is the second choice at +1400. From there, everybody else is getting at least +2200. So this is a pretty wide-open betting event.

Sungjae Im (+850 to win)

We try to avoid betting favorites on boards like this, but for this week, we can’t get past Im. The South Korean won the Honda Classic in 2020, then finished T-8 here in 2021. He also finished T-4 at Torrey Pines three weeks ago and T-6 at Phoenix two weeks ago. Im opened 69-69 last week at Riviera but faded over the weekend. We like his chances of a bounce-back effort this week.

Alex Noren (+2500 to win)

Swede Noren finished third here in 2018 and T-5 here last year. He also took a T-4 at Houston earlier this season. He missed the cuts at Phoenix and Riviera, but he’s better than that. We won’t be surprised when we see his name on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Adam Svensson (+3300 to win)

Canadian Svensson took a T-9 here last year and took a T-9 last week at Riviera, with three rounds in the 60s. He also beat a field like this to win the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort back in November. At 33/1, we believe Svensson’s got a shot to contend this weekend.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Honda Classic betting offerings, Chris Kirk and Denny McCarthy, both of whom own top-seven finishes here the last two years, are paired at +1100 on the “two chances” board; and Kirk, Noren, and Matt Kuchar, who finished eighth last week at Riviera, are teamed at +750 on the “three chances” board.

The first groups for this Honda Classic go off Thursday morning at 7:25 ET.