The John Deere Classic
Date: July 12th-15th, 2012
Course: TPC Deere Run Silvis, IL
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by Evergreen, Golf Betting Handicapper, Predictem.com
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If you’re talking tractors, they say that nothing runs like a Deere, but that is also true when talking about the scoring pace at the John Deere Classic.The quaint Midwest stop on the PGA Tour has one of the most prolific scoring environments year after year and fans are always treated to a ton of birdies.Paul Goydos became a member of the “59” club at the TPC Deere Run in 2010 but it has been Steve Stricker that has owned this course in recent years and he takes on the field this week looking for his fourth consecutive John Deere title.The field would be considered average by Tour standards as many pros are already across the pond in preparation for next week’s British Open but there are several fan favorites remaining along with a large group looking to take advantage of this last chance to get in the British field.
The TPC at Deere Run is a gorgeous layout but it has little defense against the best golfers in the world.The 7,258 yard, par-71 track is tree-lined and features well-placed bunkers and doglegs but the most accurate players on the Tour tend to eat it up.The players do have to hit it in the fairways to score but the greens roll true and birdies will be had in bunches.The course ranked as the 10theasiest in 2011 play, so look for a fun event that features a lot of players in the mix come Sunday afternoon and winning score pushing 25-under par.
Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think can win it all.We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head picks that you can find at any golf sportsbook.Here are our picks to win the 2012 John Deere Classic.
Short Favorite: Zach Johnson (12 to 1 odds to win)
It just doesn’t seem plausible that anyone can win four years in a row and with Stricker getting little more than 5 to 1 odds to win, it’s time to look in another direction.Johnson is about as close to a Stricker clone as you can get and has a solid Deere resume that sports two top-3 finishes in the last three years.Zach is 9thin the all-around stat on the strength of his top-15 ranks in putting, scrambling and fairways hit.His scoring average is 10th best entering the week and he already has a win and two second place finishes this year.
Middle of the Road: Ryan Palmer (25 to 1 odds to win)
Here is a nod to betting the hot hand.Palmer has all four of his top-10 finishes in his last six starts and that puts him as the hottest player in the field this week.The stats back it up too with Ryan in the top-20 in total putting, putting average, birdie and scoring average.When the big guns on Tour elsewhere, another a top-10 performance may translate into a win.
Longshot: Robert Garrigus (40 to 1 odds to win)
Garrigus has come close to victory twice this year with two runner-up finishes already and is fresh off a T4 at the AT&T.Robert is not your typical pick for this course as he favors hitting the ball a ton and slashing it on the green from wherever he finds it.It could spell trouble if he is overly wild but if he can merely keep it in play; he should be able to capitalize on his 15thbest greens in regulation stat.Garrigus is not strong putter by Tour standards but should be able to be aggressive on the Deere Run greens and that always helps with the makes.For a long player, he is a surprisingly good overall ballstriker and enters the week 20thin birdie average.
Head to Head Matches *picks to win are based on all four rounds.Check with your favorite online bookie for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.
Tim Clark (-115) v. Jeff Overton (-115) (our pick to win: Overton)
In past years, Clark would be an easy choice as he has typically been one of the better tee to green players out there but his GIR% has fallen off and so has the birdie average.Overton is a bit wild at times but still notches a top-15 birdie average, is the better putter so far this year and is nearly 75 spots better on the scoring average list than Clark.
Sean O’Hair (-115) v. Carl Pettersson (-115) (our pick to win: Pettersson)
You could simply pick big Carl based on finishes this year but a strong advantage with the putter makes him a solid pick for Deere Run.O’Hair is making his share of birdies but the results haven’t been there due to too many mistakes and there are places where this course will make you pay for mis-hits.Both players hit about the same amount of fairwyas and greens so this one comes down to the short game and Pettersson gets the nod.