John Deere Classic Preview and Picks – 2009

John Deere Classic Preview and Picks
Thur. July 9 Sun. July 12, 2009
TPC Deer Run Silvis , IL
The Golf Channel/CBS

by Matt of

The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week for the 2009 John Deere Classic from the TPC Deer Run in Illinois . Many of the top pros have already made the trip across the pond to prep for next weeks British Open, leaving the Deere crown up for grabs to a number of players in this field. Kenny Perry snagged the trophy at 16-under last year and is back to defend against some of the hottest young players on Tour. The Golf Channel has the early round coverage with CBS carrying the weekend.

The TPC at Deer Run doesn’t sport an overly difficult layout, but the 7,257 yard, par-71 course will require the players to execute the proper shots to avoid the 78 bunkers and set up good looks for birdie. Players coming from last weeks AT&T National will find the greens much slower than at Congressional with the TPC surface rolling at a very manageable 11 on the stimpmeter. Birdies should be plentiful for the entire field, so look for a large group within two or three shots heading into Sundays final round.

Each week, we take a look at the golf sportsbooks and breakdown some players we think have a good shot at winning. We’ll pick a short, middle and long odds player and profile a few head to head matches as well.

Here are our picks to win the 2009 John Deere Classic with odds and line info courtesy of the board at Superbook.

Short Favorite: Kenny Perry (10 to 1)
2008 was kind to defending champions and this week looks to be a good bet to have that trend continue in 2009. Perry hasn’t missed a cut in 16 starts, finishing in the top-10 on 7 occasions and winning twice. He ranks 4th in greens hit, 7th in total driving and 2nd in overall ballstriking, while putting together the 4th best all around stat sheet. Kenny is 5th in scoring and has the 11th most birdies on the year.

Middle: David Toms (15 to 1)
Toms has likely been the hottest player this year without a victory as he has finished tied for 2nd on three occasions, including two of the last three weeks. The number one all around player also ranks 1st in fairways and is inside the top-10 in GIR%, ball striking, putting and scoring average. Without the top dogs in the field this week, Toms is ripe to cash in win.

Longshot: Jerry Kelly (50 to 1)
Kelly is due his long odds after an inconsistent season so far, but when he’s been on, the results have been very good. Jerry has missed a third of his cuts, but his made cuts have led to three top-10’s including a win at the Zurich in New Orleans. The overall stat sheet is average at best for Kelly, but the putter is among the best on Tour when he gets rolling. The TPC isn’t overly long, and Jerry is 4th in greens hit in the 125-150 yard bracket.

Head to Head Matches (our pick) * matches are for entire event, check with your favorite book for single round matches, updated daily.

Aaron Baddeley (-125) v. Chad Campbell (-105) (Campbell)
Baddeley is one of the best putters in the PGA, but the rest of his game hasn’t been there this year. Campbell doesn’t lose a lot to Badds on the greens,and heowns a big advantage tee to green, ranking at least 100 spots better in total driving and overall ballstriking.

Jason Bohn (-115) v. Robert Garrigus (-115) (Garrigus)
Bohn has the big edge in finding fairways, but Garrigus’ strength is the 2nd longest driving average on Tour, leading to opportunities even from the rough. You can score from the spinach at Deer Run and Garrigus holds the better scoring average and all around stat rank.

Good Luck!