PGA Championship Predictions to Win
Dates: August 13th-16th, 2015
Course: Whistling Straits Sheboygan, WI
TNT
by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com
Where has the year gone? Certainly, where has the summer gone? Back-to-school sales are two weeks old already and we are on the verge of the Tours final Major, the PGA Championship. The 97th edition of the PGA Championship will be contested at Whistling Straits and this is the third time the Wisconsin venue has hosted this event. Rory McIlroy (ankle) is hoping to be well enough to defend his 2014 PGA Championship title but even if Rory cant make it, there will be still be a star-studded field. Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler lead the youngster set into action while stalwarts like Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk look to add another Major notch to their belt. Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Bubba Watson are just a few more that have a great shot at this title and dont forget about guys like 2004 champ Vijay Singh and 2010 winner Martin Kaymer. A great field at a great course is always a recipe for great golf.
Unlike just about every other course I preview, I can actually bring some first-hand knowledge into this week. Whistling Straits is only a couple of hours away from where I live and Ive been lucky enough to play the course twice in recent years. Pete Dye worked his magic and turned an almost useless piece of land into a championship course, complete with world-class difficulty and amazing views. The links style layout feels more like the UK or Ireland than dairy country and Lake Michigan provides a fitting backdrop for this special course. Eight different holes are snugged right next to the lake and they can be downright impossible if the winds are coming from unfavorable angles. There are very few flat spots on the course so hilly lies are commonplace and wayward shots are caught either by fescue-topped mounds or any one of what feels like a million bunkers.
The sand at Whistling Straits is a dominant feature. It was in 2010 that Dustin Johnson was assessed a two stroke penalty on the final hole when he unknowingly grounded his club in a bunker. Johnson had thought he was in a waste area and could legally ground his club but it was later decided he was in a proper bunker and the penalty pushed him out of the playoff. Im sure that there will be plenty of rules officials around to make sure that situation doesnt repeat itself but the main fact here is that sand is everywhere. The par-72 course played at roughly 7,500 yards in 2004 and 2010 but can stretch to nearly 7,800 yards if necessary. The sand, wind and Lake Michigan are all the challenge you really need but Dye included some diabolical greens to ratchet up the difficulty another degree. The greens here are massive, some comically so, and they can put pins in places that make straight putts an impossibility. Three-putting is easy, even from relatively short distances so look for those players that lag the ball well to see some advantage over the field. The winning scores have been 8 and 11-under with the Senior U.S. Open winning total at 6-under so it isnt impossible to score here but carding four good rounds is much trickier than having one good day.
Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight the players that we think are the best bets to win. We give you some short, middle and long odds picks so you can head to the virtual window with confidence. Here are our picks to win the 2015 PGA Championship.
Jason Day (14 to 1 odds to win)
Day has just a handful of PGA Championship starts in his career but he has three top-15s in the last five years, including a T10 at Whistling Straits in 2010. There are scoring opportunities here so its nice to have the Tour leader in birdie average (4.67 per round) on your side. No one is likely to put together bogey-free rounds and those extra couple birdie chances should pay by the end of the week. Day is 2nd in driving distance and bookends that with a top-20 strokes gained-putting stat so he has the ability to shrink the course and finish off his good approaches. He is 2ndin the all-around stat so you wont find any glaring weaknesses either. The Straits and Chambers Bay are similar enough to suggest a player should do well at both and Jason would likely have won the U.S. Open this year if not for a bout with vertigo. Spieth and perhaps McIlroy are the betting favorites but Day is getting really good value as well just a few spots down the board and he isnt giving up much in the talent department.
Bubba Watson (20 to 1)
Watson has proved he can win at Augusta but his chances at the other Majors are somewhat limited by his (in)ability to import his game to the most difficult of courses. Bubba is the best of the bomb-and-gouge set but that hasnt led to much success when U.S. Open-style layouts or British Open-style weather demands more precision. Whistling Straits offers a chance for Bubba to play into his strengths and his best PGA Championship finish came here in 2010. Watson carded a double bogey on the third playoff hole to drop a one-stroke decision to Kaymer and I imagine Bubba is plenty motivated to erase that memory. Watson is the longest player on Tour and will be able to use that length to a great degree. He should see more scoring opportunities and has the best chance to shrink some of these monstrous holes as he leads the Tour in greens hit under regulation. He is top-7 in birdies and scoring and adds an underrated but respectable short game to round out the 9thbest all-around stat sheet. His style wont automatically be punished this week so he should be a factor.
Louis Oosthuizen (30 to 1)
If you ask PGA pros about who the best ballstriker is on Tour, many will say that Louis is. Oosthuizen is world-class in the accuracy department, especially with the iron and he routinely makes it through rounds without even a single miss-hit. The golf gods saddled Oosty with a sub-standard putter however and that is the only reason that he hasnt won more Majors. That said, links golf provided Oosthuizen his best chance as he will see be able to navigate the ballstriking challenges and putting on these large greens is more about avoiding three putts rather than making a bunch of birdies. Louis won the 2010 British Open and was T2 at St. Andrews this year so it is safe to say he is a proven commodity on this type of course. Hes 20thin greens hit, 20thin scoring average and long enough to navigate the course length without stress. The putter is the key but even a moderate hot steak should see Louis on the front page.
Brandt Snedeker (50 to 1)
Snedeker has to be among the best players without a Major victory. He does have a TOUR Championship win and has been in the top-10 on seven occasions in his last two-plus years of Major Championship play. Sneds was 8that Chambers Bay and T13 at the PGA last year so he is on the radar and a solid run this week shouldnt surprise anyone. There has never been much to say about Brandts tee-to-green game as he is pretty average across the board but he does have a premier putting touch. He enters the week 5thin strokes gained, 7thin putting average and 9thin one-putt percentage. That level of work on the greens is invaluable and produces a top-10 scoring average despite the lack of top-end distance or accuracy. The Straits will give some players fits on the greens as they are unlike anything else in the Midwest but I expect Snedeker to be among the best in saving strokes with the putter and that gives him more room for error. He did make the cut here in 2010 and eventually finished T39 but I think that experience is important and should go a long way against those that have never played here or bombed out previously.
Matt Kuchar (50 to 1)
Despite what is now an extensive PGA career, Kuchar will be making just his seventh PGA Championship start. He has made three of his last four PGA cuts and his best PGA Championship finish came here in 2010 when he finished T10. Kuchar was T12 at this years U.S. Open and I really think that Chambers Bay is a good analog so look for more success for Kuch at Whistling Straits. Matt is rock-solid on the greens, ranking 11thin both strokes-gained putting and putting average and that helps net the 21stbest scoring mark. There is very little he doesnt do well, although his calm demeanor has him sometimes overlooked, and he enters the week 8thin the all-around so he has the complete set of tools to tackle this course. Kuchar ranks 12thin scrambling and it is almost a guarantee that the winner this week will need to implement some imagination and craftiness around the greens.
Ryan Moore (100 to 1)
Moore has a pretty short PGA Championship record but he has made the cut in four of his five career starts with a T9 in 2006 as his best finish. While he is on the shorter side and that could prove somewhat troublesome, there are few better at finding the fairways than Moore. He should be able to get off the tee in good shape and use his ballstriking to think his way around Whistling Straits. Moore adds a solid putter to his game and nets the 23rdbest birdie average at 3.95 per round. He is inside the top-30 in the all-around and has no standout weakness outside of a lack of driver power. It will be tough to tame a big course but there are a few shorter players that could do it and Ryan is in that group. Where are you betting your PGA Championship picks? Does your book offer discounted odds and props each week? If not, we highly recommend checking out 5Dimes. Why settle for anything less than the best?
Good luck and good golf!
2015 PGA Championship Betting Odds
Jordan Spieth 6/1
Jason Day 12/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Dustin Johnson 15/1
Adam Scott 20/1
Bubba Watson 20/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Tiger Woods 30/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Brooks Koepka 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Sergio Garcia 45/1
Hideki Matsuyama 50/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Patrick Reed 55/1
Brandt Snedeker 60/1
Jimmy Walker 60/1
Martin Kaymer 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Paul Casey 65/1
Billy Horschel 85/1
Branden Grace 85/1
Charl Schwartzel 85/1
JB Holmes 85/1
Keegan Bradley 85/1
Luke Donald 85/1
Danny Lee 100/1
Danny Willett 100/1
David Lingmerth 100/1
Graeme McDowell 100/1
Justin Thomas 100/1
Kevin Kisner 100/1
Robert Streb 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Bill Haas 115/1
Ian Poulter 115/1
Jason Dufner 115/1
Lee Westwood 115/1
Marc Leishman 115/1
Webb Simpson 130/1
Francesco Molinari 135/1
Bernd Wiesberger 150/1
Gary Woodland 150/1
Graham DeLaet 150/1
Hunter Mahan 150/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Ryan Palmer 150/1
Steve Stricker 150/1
Steven Bowditch 150/1
Victor Dubuisson 150/1
Brendon Todd 165/1
John Senden 165/1
Kevin Chappell 165/1
Tony Finau 165/1
Charley Hoffman 175/1
Harris English 175/1
Matt Jones 175/1
Camilo Villegas 200/1
Ernie Els 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
Jamie Donaldson 200/1
Jason Bohn 200/1
Padraig Harrington 200/1
Russell Knox 210/1
Byeong-Hun An 225/1
Kevin Streelman 225/1
Nick Watney 225/1
Scott Piercy 225/1
Tommy Fleetwood 225/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 265/1
Ben Martin 275/1
Boo Weekley 275/1
Daniel Berger 275/1
Marc Warren 275/1
Shawn Stefani 275/1
Alex Cejka 300/1
Brendon de Jonge 300/1
Cameron Tringale 300/1
David Toms 300/1
James Hahn 300/1
Sang-Moon Bae 300/1
Thomas Bjorn 300/1
YE Yang 300/1
Vijay Singh 350/1
Colin Montgomerie 500/1
John Daly 500/1
Matt Every 500/1
Mikko Ilonen 500/1
Nick Taylor 500/1
Stephen Gallacher 550/1
Darren Clarke 1000/1
