Phoenix Open Value Bets & Analysis

by | Last updated Feb 8, 2023 | golf

Event: Phoenix Open

Where: TPC Scottsdale

Watch: Golf Channel, CBS

When: Feb. 9-12

The PGA Tour hits the Arizona desert this weekend for the most raucous event of the season, the Phoenix Open in Scottsdale. A field that includes 18 of the World Golf Rankings’ top 20 players tee it up for shares of a $20 million purse!

Boy, did we go into the wrong line of work.

TPC Scottsdale, home to the Phoenix Open since 1987, plays (for the pros) to a par-71 at around 7,260 yards. The average winning score here over the last five tournaments is 17-under par.

Last year Scottie Scheffler birdied the third hole of the playoff with Patrick Cantlay to win this event for his first career PGA victory. Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, and Sahith Theegala finished tied for third; Billy Horschel and Alex Noren tied for sixth; Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama tied for eighth; and Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patton Kizzire, and Keith Mitchell tied for tenth.

Last weekend, extended into earlier this week, Justin Rose shot four rounds in the 60s to come in at -18 and win the Pebble Beach Pro-AM, his first victory in four years. In doing so, he also cashed in at tasty odds of 25/1.

Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu tied for second last week, three shots behind Rose. Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell (his second mention here), and Peter Malnati tied for fourth; and Taylor Pendrith, Kevin Yu, Ryan Moore, and Joseph Bramlett tied for seventh.

Each week we surf the online betting sites and highlight some of the best values on the board. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field for this week’s Phoenix Open.

Spaniard Jon Rahm, the hottest player on the planet this year, owns three top-10 finishes over the last four Phoenix Opens. So it’s no surprise he’s the top choice on Bovada’s Phoenix Open betting board at +750.

Rory McIlroy, who’s only played this tournament once before, finishing T-13 two years ago, is the second choice at +850. And defending champion Scheffler is the third choice at +1200.

But we don’t like betting favorites. Let’s look elsewhere.

Justin Thomas – 20/1 to win

The World No. 9 finished third here in 2019, T-3 in 2020, and T-8 here last year, so he’s got the nice track record at this venue. Thomas hasn’t been playing great yet this year; two weeks ago, he made four bogeys over his last eight holes to finish T-25 at Torrey Pines, then took last week off. Perhaps a little break will help. And almost anytime you can get Thomas at 20/1, he’s worth a stab.

Billy Horschel – 12/1 to finish top-five

Horschel, who’s rather quietly No. 19 in the World, also owns a good recent record on this track, placing T-9 in 2020 and T-6 here last year. The 36-year-old former Florida Gator has also made the cut here in the last eight years. Horschel missed the cut his last time out a month ago at Waialae, then skipped the last three events on the Southern California swing. But we won’t be surprised if he makes a good showing this week at an event he’s said he enjoys.

Keith Mitchell – 11/1 to finish top-5

This former Georgia Bulldog carded six top-10 finishes last season, including a T-10 here at Phoenix, with four rounds in the 60s. He’s already fashioned two more top-10s this season, including a T-4 last week at Pebble Beach, playing a bogey-free fourth round. So he’s in good form, and he’s played well here before. What’s not to like?

We caught a taste of success last week with Justin Rose on a “two chances” board, paired with Seamus Power, who finished T-15 at odds of 12/1. This week Bovada’s “two chances” board offers the pairing of Max Homa, who won the Farmers two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, and Patrick Cantlay, who lost the Phoenix Open last year in a playoff at +1000. And Bovada’s “three chances” board offers the trio of Homa, Cantlay, and Schauffele at +550.

The first groups for this Phoenix Open go off Thursday morning at 8:15 local time, 11:15 ET. Bet your golf picks for FREE this week by scoring a 50% real cash bonus at the web’s best sportsbook with the fastest payouts and absolute BEST live wagering platform! You can bet the tournament LIVE-IN-PROGRESS at Bovada Sportsbook! It’s where we bet!