The BMW Championship Picks and Betting Odds
Thursday Sept. 10 - Sunday Sept. 13, 2009
Cog Hill Golf and Country Club - Lemont, IL
The Golf Channel/NBC
by Evergreen of Predictem.com
Only twoevents remain until the FedExCup winner is crowned and this week’s BMW Championship will go a long way in deciding who is invited to thePGA finale in two weeks. The top-70 are exempt and in attendance atCog Hill, but only 30 willqualifyfor the season-ending TOUR Championship. Additionally, the top-5 heading into the final week will control their own destiny as any will win the Cup with a victory regardless of the finishing position of the other four.Some players that are looking for strong showings this week are Justin Leonard, Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey, all currently outside the top-30.
Cog Hill is hosting the BMW for the second time, back after a year’s hiatus to add difficulty and redesign nearly every hole. Although Camilo Villegas is the 2008 BMW champ, Tiger won the 2007 event at this course and has three other victories when Cog Hill hosted the Western Open.
The course will feature significant sloping on the greens and deep bunkers to provide a Major-like test. The 22-under total that Woods put up in 2007 shouldn’t be a possibility as course management has the ability to use any of six teeing areas and can quickly dry out the 7,386 yard, par-71 layout.
Each week, we take a look at the online golf sportsbooks and pick players that we like to win the event. Coming off a correct pick of Steve Stricker at the Deutsche Bank, we’ll pick a short, middle and long odds golfer to win the event and breakdown a few head to head matches as well. Here are our picks to win the 2009 BMW Championship:
Short: Steve Stricker (12 to 1 to win)
Not only is Stricker the hottest golfer on the planet, (2nd and 1st in two Playoff events) the FedExCup Playoffs have been prone to win streaks as Vijay Singh and Camilo Villegas both won two in a row last year. Simply put, Stricker is the best putter on Tour and the best at getting up and down. Both should be huge when playing a course that is much different and more difficult than anyone remembers. Steve is also 2nd on Tour in scoring average, par-4 performance and all around stat ranking. Stay hot Stevie!!
Middle: Dustin Johnson (30 to 1)
After an average summer, the Pebble Beach winner has three top-15 finishes in a row, including a T4 in last week’s event. Johnson is 18th in birdies and 4th in eagles to occupy the top spot on Tour in par breakers. Dustin also grabbed the Tour lead in birdies per round at 4.21 and has a solid overall game, ranking 6th in the all around stat. Limiting mistakes will be key to casing a win, but Johnson’s 11th ranked putter can bail him out if he misses some greens.
Long: Ian Poulter (50 to 1)
Poulter has come up way short when we’ve picked him this year, but being on thelimits of the top-30 heading into the week should be motivation to put together a solid run. Ian suffered a missed cut last week, but had three top-20’s since staying stateside after the PGA Championship. He will have to execute better than his 185th greens hit ranking, but Poulter has the 4th best putts per round number and 4th best scrambling percentage to keep damage to a minimum. Even missing all those greens, Ian manages a top-20 scoring average, proving a win is justa good iron week away.
Head to Head Matches (our pick)
*all matches are for entire event. Check with your favorite golf sportsbook for single round matches, updated daily.
Sergio Garcia (-115) v. Hunter Mahan (-115) (Mahan)
This one jumped off the page so much that I thought the books might be missing something. Sergio is clearly the bigger name here, but Mahan is 2nd in ballstriking and 3rd in birdie average while Garcia is 64th and 139th in those categories. The addition of speedy and unfamiliar greens should only expand Mahan’s edge in putting as well.
Anthony Kim (-115) v. Camilo Villegas (-115) (Kim)
Both players have struggled amid high expectations this year, and both will need a good showing to make it to the finals. Neither have wowed on the stat sheet, but Kim has the big putting and birdie advantage, and that should be enough to take the win.