U.S. Open Picks and Props

Tournament: The 108th U.S. Open
Dates: June 12-15, 2008
Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course - South
Location: San Diego, CA
Television: ESPN/NBC

by Matt of Predictem.com

If you follow along with our golf picks, you know make picks for the outright win as well as match-ups picks for each event. For the U.S. Open, we expanded our player preview to include more players and we will look at some of the available proposition bets to go along with our match-up picks here.

Match-ups and lines are courtesy of the book at Bodog but check any sportsbook for various matches throught the event.

Match (our pick)

All matches are for entire tournament

Tiger Woods (-200) v. Phil Mickelson (+150) (Mickelson)

This one will take place in a face to face fashion with the two sharing a Thursday/Friday pairing. (Here’s to wishing for a Sunday grouping as well) Many players have faltered in Tiger’s direct glare, but Phil is better suited to handle the pressure than most, and will have some hometown mojo from the gallery. The big question here will be Tiger’s health, both his knee and the health of his game. It sounds like the knee will last, but a B-game from Woods may not be enough to hold off Mickelson. I flipped on this one more than once, but settled on Phil as a rare underdog.

Sergio Garcia (-115) v. Padraig Harrington (-115) (Garcia)

Very similar scoring averages here with strong overall profiles for each. Garcia has the edge in greens hit, ranking 14th to Harrington’s 101st, but Paddy gets it back on the greens with the 5th best putter to Sergio’s 108th rank. Garcia’s 13th overall ball-striking wins out here for me.

Luke Donald (-115) v. Geoff Ogilvy (-115) (Ogilvy)

Donald doesn’t look good here heading into Torrey Pines with a 176th mark in ball striking, yet he still scratches out a better scoring average than Ogilvy (69.6 to 70.15). My money goes to Ogilvy and his 30th ranked ball striking, including 18th in GIR%. The Open will penalize Donald’s miscues much harder than typical Tour stops in my opinion. Ogilvy gets the nod as a former champ as well.


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Vijay Singh (-115) v. Jim Furyk (-115) (Furyk)

Singh has been more consistent in his finishes this year, but has seen the steady top-10’s turn into top-25’s. Furyk has the big edge in hitting fairways, ranked 19th to Vijay’s 147th and the rest of the stat sheet is a virtual wash. At Oakmont last year, Furyk finished T2 with Singh at T20. Look for a similar result this year, at least in terms of Furyk outpacing Singh.

Props

Will Tiger record a hole in one? Yes (+4000)

I put this one here just so I could type +4000, the same bet is out there for Mickelson, shake the cushions for a $10 bill and pray.

Will the field record a hole in one? Yes (+150) No (-200)

We took the Yes at the Masters and it paid, so we’ll go Yes again. There have been 39 total holes in one in Open competition, look for it on Thursday or Friday with the full field going.

Will Tiger miss the cut? Yes (+500)

The knee might act up, the last extended layoff cost Tiger a weekend, although for much different reasons. Torrey Pines is too favored to Wood’s game. Can’t see a MC here.

Where will the winner come from?

USA 8/15

Europe 10/3

Rest of World 11/2

Australia 10/1

U.S. has Phil and Tiger as it’s show ponies but Cink, Leonard and Furyk are capable as well. Sergio was our middle odds pick, and Europe has a good look with Harrington as well. Patriotism rules for me this week - take a Yank to win the U.S. Open.

Will there be a playoff? Yes (+250) No (-350)

The odds say no with 32 playoffs in 107 chances(29%) Good pay on the Yes bet if you have a hunch.

Will Tiger lead after Rd. 1? Yes (+450)

Will Phil lead after Rd. 1? Yes (+900)

There just aren’t that many wire to wire winners on the PGA Tour, and fewer in the Majors. Too many questions around Tiger, but the +900 for Phil is begging for a little action.

Tiger/Phil versus the field - Woods/Mickelson (+188) Field (-275)

The number one and two players seem joined at the hip for all things concerned with the Open this year. This one is usually Tiger solo versus the field, but his closest competitor alongside tip the scales in their favor. Phiger Woodelson???

Tiger v Phil - birdies or better on day 1. Tiger (2/3) Phil (11/10)

Leaning to Phil here expecting Tiger to try to get through round 1 with pars ruling the round.

Tiger v Phil - bogeys or worse on day 1. Tiger (Even) Phil (-138)

Mickelson here again for same reason as above.

Phil’s finish

1-20 (4/11)

21-40 (7/2)

41+ (5/1)

This one might just as well read “Can Phil handle being paired with Tiger and not self-destruct?” I think he can, but it only takes on round of 78 to fall 30 places on the board.

Good Luck All!