Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Predictions
Event: Waste Management Phoenix Open
Date: January 31 – February 3, 2019
Location: TPC Scottsdale – Scottsdale, AZ
TV: The Golf Channel/NBC
It is Polar Vortex time again and while over 200 million folks will see sub-zero temps this week, none of them will be in Arizona and that is where the PGA Tour is lucky enough to be. The Waste Management Phoenix Open doesn’t have the best spot on the schedule as it is up against the SuperBowl but that
doesn’t stop the Scottsdale event from being the most attended stop each year. Over 500,000 spectators will traffic the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale over this week and the enclosed par-3, 16th hole is probably the most rowdy environment in all of golf.
Those nutty golf fans will see Gary Woodland defend his 2018 title against the likes of John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and two-time Phoenix champ Hideki Matsuyama. Phil Mickelson has won here three times and he is out to make it four at what has to
be one of his favorite courses on Tour. Over twenty of the top-30 in the OWGR will tee it up this weekend making the Phoenix one of the strongest stops on the early 2019 slate.
TPC Scottsdale has been part of the Tour
rotation since taking over Phoenix hosting duties in 1987. The 7,266 yard-par 71 layout is a desert classic that routinely produces entertaining finishes. Woodland bested Chez Reavie in a playoff last season and a playoff has been necessary on six occasions
since 2008. There has only been one Phoenix Open decided by more than one stroke since 2007 so look for the Sunday finish to be close and exciting. There are solid scoring opportunities throughout the back nine so players can make a late charge and that often
forces the leaders to remain aggressive to the end. Mickelson won here in 2013 at an amazing 28-under par but winning totals are much more likely to be in the 14-to-18-under range as they have been in nine of the last ten Opens.
Each week, we take a look at the sports betting sites and highlight the best value bets on the board. We make a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head-to-head matches that you can find at any golf betting outlet. Here are our picks to win the 2019 Phoenix Open.
Tony Finau (20 to 1 odds to win)
Tony was a pick of ours last week and he can up short with a T13 at Torrey Pines but he remains a solid value
bet based on his four runner-up finishes since play began in 2018. He is close and it isn’t going to take much more than what he is currently doing to push through for that win. This course and event has been kind to the bombers on Tour before and Finau checks
in as the 2nd longest player on Tour. He is a top-20 GIR putter and that nets the 12th best birdie average with the 3rd best scoring mark. Finau is solid around the greens as well, ranking 16th in scrambling. His 5th ranked overall tee-to-green game is a good
match for anywhere but TPC Scottsdale rewards shotmakers and Tony should be a relevant player on the weekend.
Billy Horschel (40 to 1)
Horschel had a very strong 2018 with five top-3 finishes, including a win in New Orleans and he has carried
much of that over to this season with six made cuts in as many starts with a T8 finish last week. He hasn’t lit it up at Scottsdale but he does have four straight made cuts in Phoenix to let you know he is comfortable here. He is just off his ballstriking
numbers that saw him in the top-20 in both fairways and greens last year and he putted well enough to be top-30 in birdies and scoring. A solid week at Torrey suggests he has knocked off any rust from the offseason and should return to the front page of the
leaderboard as he so often did last year. Billy is a vet and former FedEx champ that has gone against the best in the world to win before so he has the mental game to keep it together if he is in the mix with some big guns on Sunday.
Ryan Palmer (75 to 1)
Palmer has has a few contending runs in the early going with a T3 at the CJ Cup and a T7 at the Shriners. His
T13 last week should have been much better but a third round 75 wasted much of the work he did on the first two days. He did finish strong on Sunday but the hole was too deep to dig out of with the scoring rather fast. Palmer has a bit of a spotty record at
Scottsdale but the good has been quite good with a T5 in 2013 and a runner-up in 2015. He is still plenty long to take advantage of the score-able par-5’s and comes in 24th in greens hit. He is 25th in putting average and 25th in overall tee-to-green performance
to make for a much better stat sheet than most of his competition with similar odds to win. Ryan is often only as good as his putter so it is a good sign that he has started out 2019 above average against the field on the greens. He should be a threat as long
as he can maintain that advantage.
Picks to win based on predicted score for all four rounds. Check with your MyBookie for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.
Kuchar has never been the most dynamic player on Tour but his lunch-pail approach makes him so tough to beat
in head-to-heads. Simpson is a fine grinder in his own right but Kuchar has been the hotter player in the early going with a win just two weeks ago and the 2nd most FedEx points so far. Matty is the longer of the two and that is significant with both players
hitting about the same amount of fairways overall. Kuchar has a slight advantage in greens hit and outscored Webb even though Simpson has been the better statistical putter. If Simpson was playing a bit better off the tee, this would be a razor thin match
that could lean Webb’s way based on the putting alone but I’m sticking with a proven Kuchar that has found a winning touch again.
Neither player has missed a cut this season so don’t expect either to give an easy W to the other this week.
Schauffele won the TOC to open 2019 but Woodland ran second and beat Xander in three of four rounds before the X-man put up a stellar final round 62 to steal the win. Woodland won this head-to-head last week and he should do so again as he is both longer and
more accurate off the tee than his opponent. Scottsdale is a course that reward solid tee play and much of the trouble is effectively taken away if a player can put it where he wants with the driver. Xander is the better performer on the greens but Woodland
is currently out-scoring him and netting more birdies per round. This will be a very happy return for Woodland and I think he uses that solid state of mind to put up another very solid finish that Schauffele will have to be near-perfect to beat.
Good luck and good golf and remember to bookmark our Golf Picks page for PGA tournament action all season long!