Wells Fargo Championship Analysis & Picks

by | Last updated May 4, 2023 | golf

Event: Wells Fargo Championship
Where: Quail Hollow Club
Watch: Golf Channel, CBS
When: May 4-7

The PGA Tour visits a familiar venue this week, Quail Hollow in Charlotte, to play the Wells Fargo Championship. A field of 156, including six of the World Golf Rankings’ top 10, will play for shares of another $20 million purse, plus a bunch of FedEx Cup points and, for some, a chance to qualify for the upcoming PGA Championship.

Last week Tony Finau shot four rounds of 66 or better to win the Mexico Open by two shots over Jon Rahm. In claiming his second victory of this season, Finau bagged $1.4 million in prize money while providing his financial backers a payout of +800.

Brandon Wu showed third last week; Akshay Bhatia finished fourth; first-round leader Austin Smotherman, Eric Cole, and Emiliano Grillo tied for fifth; Ben Taylor and Cam Champ tied for eighth; and Alejandro Tosti, Harry Hall, Joseph Bramlett, Beau Hossler, and Patrick Rodgers tied for tenth.

As for this week, Quail Hollow, host to this event every year since 2003 except 2017 and last year, plays to a par-71 at around 7,530 yards. This venue also hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas, and last year’s Presidents Cup, won by a US team that included Jordan Spieth, who won all five of his matches, Max Homa, who played 4-0, and Thomas, who played 4-1.

Last year the Wells Fargo Championship was played at TPC Potomac in Maryland. Homa won by two shots over Cam Young, Keegan Bradley, and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Homa also won this event at this venue in 2019.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best golf betting values available, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field in this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.

Rory McIlroy, who’s won this event three times, tops the betting on Bovada’s Wells Fargo Championship board at +700. Patrick Cantlay sits as the second choice at +1400, followed by Finau, Cam Young, and Xander Schauffele at +1600 and Spieth and Viktor Hovland at +1800.

But we look a bit further down the line for our top pick for this week.

Jason Day +2500 to win

The Australian Day finished T-9 at the PGA here in 2017 and won this event here in 2018. More recently, he’s made the cut 11 of his last 12 times out with five top-10 finishes, including a T-9 at Riviera and a T-10 at Bay Hill. He was also in the running for a top-10 at the Masters a month ago but shot 80 on Sunday to finish T-39. He’s since taken some time off, and that can be a good thing. So 25/1 looks like some nice value with this guy.

Akshay Bhatia +2200 to finish top-5

This 21-year-old left-hander, now a North Carolina resident, owns a pair of top-four finishes over his last seven PGA events, including a fourth at the Mexico Open last week. In limited play, he ranks eighth on the Tour in GIR at 71 percent. He also owns a couple of top-seven finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour this year. This guy looks like a rising star, and we’re hoping to cash in on some of his success.

Ben Taylor +1800 to finish top-10

Taylor was playing some decent golf earlier this season, with three top-five finishes, including a third at the Houston Open and a T-4 at Waialae. He then missed four cuts in a row then took a T-8 at the Mexico Open last week. So maybe he rediscovered something.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Wells Fargo Championship offerings, McIlroy is getting +400 to miss the cut, +3000 to win by four or more shots, and +5000 to win wire-to-wire; and the trio of McIlroy, Spieth, and Thomas is getting +1000 on the “all top-10” board.

The first groups for this Wells Fargo Championship go off Thursday morning at 6:50 am ET.