Wells Fargo Championship Picks
By Tee it High, Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com
LAST WEEK: +8.9
Recap: To win picks: Three swings three misses -2.5 units
Prop picks: McIlroy paid off for 2 and Jamie Donaldson got 16 in top 10 picks. +14 units
Head to Head Matchups: Lost a little in tournament head to head matchups and dropped 2.6 units.
THIS WEEK
Quail Hollow is a great venue for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship. 7,562 yards long, the course features one of the toughest 3 finishing holes on the tour known as the Green Mile. The field has been hurt by the back to back combination of World Matchplay and the TPC and has only 11 of the top 25 in the world.
LAST FIVE YEAR’S WINNERS
2010 Rory McIlroy
2011 Lucas Glover
2012 Rickie Fowler
2013 Derek Ernst
2014 JB Holmes
Forget about the aberration that is Derek Ernst (1 win, 1 top 10, 2 top 25s in 3 years). it is obvious long hitters have an advantage.
LAST YEAR’S TOP TEN
JB Holmes
Jim Furyk
Martin Flores
Jason Bohn
Justin Rose- (not in field)
Brendon de Jonge
Kevin Kisner
Rory Sabbatini
Rory McIlroy
Always consider last year’s results combined with recent success. This leaves us with Holmes, Furyk, Kisner, Sabbatini (I think I just threw up in the back of my throat) and McIlroy as strong candidates. But I’m throwing out the gutsy Kiz because of the huge paycheck the Georgia Bulldog got last week.
Back to back winners on tour are rare (probably because of the amount of attention paid to them and the demands on their time). This applies to back to back winners on a weekly basis and back to back winners in the same event. So I will go lightly with Holmes.
SHORT PICK
The odds on McIlroy (3/1) are just too short. So I’ll take the young Japanese phenom Hideki Matsuyama (21/1). He is the reigning champion of the Memorial and has seven top tens this year on tour.
MEDIUM PICK
I’m keeping Adam Scott off my board until he figures out his putter woes. Phil Mickelson needs to show me a lot more before I put my money on the line. And while keeping an eye on Justin Thomas, he’s not quite ready for my prime time.
Hunter Mahan (45/1) is my pick this week. A pair of top 10s at the Masters and the Matchplay is enough to pull the trigger and hope the MC at TPC was an aberration.
LONGSHOT PICKS
Longshots are a flyer. A total guess based on who might breakout. I’m giving you two picks this week at .5 units apiece.
Sangmoon Bae (140/1) is as motivated as it gets. His appeal with the South Korean government to avoid compulsory military service is still pending. The President’s Cup is to be played this year in South Korea. Bae is the highest ranked Korean player in the world (#15 on the President’s Cup list). And getting on that team would have to help his appeal.
Kyle Reifers (225/1) out of Wake Forest University has made the big show for 3rd time in seven years and this time he might have figured it out. Currently ranked 87th on tour, he makes Charlotte his base and could be ready to make a move.
PROP PLAYS
Love backing up my picks with top ten props
Take Matsuyama (+185), Mahan (+425), Bae (+1250) and Reifers (+2000) to finish in the top ten.
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS
Moore +110 over Mickelson. This bet is against Phil and his current form.
Matsuyama -120 over Mickelson. See above plus the strong ball striking of Matsuyama
Holmes even over Scott. Get relatively hot player and defending champ in Holmes against the putting challenged Scott Holmes -120 over Kisner. See above for Holmes plus against Kisner getting the largest check he’s ever seen and the subsequent hangover of everything associated.
Mahan +115 over Martin. Mahan rounding into form and Martin has to be disappointed in his TPC finish.
Bae even over Stefani. Bae is motivated and Stefani does not have a top 10 since January.
McIlroy -210 over Stenson. Rory is as good as it gets and a former champ at Quail Hollow
PICK SUMMARY
1 Unit Matsuyama (21/1)
1 Unit Mahan (45/1)
.5 Unit Bae (140/1)
.5 Unit Reifers (225/1)
2 Units Matsuyama top ten (+185)
1 Units Mahan top ten (+425)
1 Unit Bae top ten (+1250)
1 Unit Reifers top ten (+2000)
1 Unit Moore +105 over Mickelson
3 Units Matsuyama -120 over Mickelson
2 Units Holmes even over Scott
1 unit Holmes -120 over Kisner
1 unit Bae even over Stenson
1 Unit McIlroy -219over Stenson
1 unit Mahan +115 over Martin
Good Luck!
