2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Betting Odds and Handicapping Analysis
by Horse Racing Handicapper Kenneth Strong
6th Race, Monmouth Park, Saturday, October 27
Fillies and Mares, 3-and-up, 1 3/8 Miles, Purse $2 Million
2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Betting Analysis
Wagering Key: Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Ultra Pick 6
Likely favorite NASHOBA’S KEY is getting knocked by some because she hasn’t beaten anything in California. We don’t agree with the knockers. If she gets beat it won’t be for lack of trying. This is a filly who finds ways to win even when they try everything in the book to beat her. And just when you think you’ve got her collared late in a race, she accelerates just enough to beat you.
HONEY RYDER ran poorly in her most recent race but she does run well off a layoff, she has an excellent record at the distance and her second-place finish to English Channel in the United Nations two starts ago makes her a solid contender here. She also finished third in this race last year to the mighty Ouija Board. There is no one of that one’s caliber in this race.
PASSAGE OF TIME comes into the race off a third place finish in the classy Prix Verneille-G1. Her pedigree says she’ll get the distance and she did beat the best of both sexes in the Criterium de Saint Cloud-G1 last year at 1 miles. She also has top trainer Henry Cecil at the helm.
LAHUDOOD could be a great bet in this race at 10-1. The European transplant bounced back off a poor Beverly D-G1 showing to win the Flower Bowl-G1 and while she did get a perfect trip in that race she also worked hard to win it. She had three second place finishes in Grade 2 route stakes in France before arriving in North America and may have another notch of improvement in her.
PRECIOUS KITTEN and SIMPLY PERFECT look like the speed of the race but what happens if one of them gets loose? European SIMPLY PERFECT has never been beyond a mile but she has the pedigree, trainer and jockey to do it. She also has a Grade 1 win over older mares this year in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket.
PRECIOUS KITTEN also has the pedigree to get the distance and her trainer Bobby Frankel is the only trainer ever to saddle a lone speed horse to win this race - Intercontinental to beat Ouija Board. The current form on PRECIOUS KITTEN looks eerily similar to that of INTERCONTINENTALS’s prior to that one’s win in this race too. Leave out at your own risk. At 30-1 we’ll be using her on some tickets.
Below follow the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf entries with post positions and morning line odds. Check back Friday for our final Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare picks.
2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Entries and Morning Line Betting Odds
Post Horse Odds
1 All My Loving (IRE) 15-1
2 Honey Ryder 9-2
3 Nashoba’s Key 3-1
4 Passage of Time (GB) 7-2
5 Wait a While 4-1
6 Lahudood (GB) 10-1
7 Argentina (IRE) 12-1
8 Timarwa (IRE) 20-1
9 Danzon 12-1
10 Arravale 30-1
11 Simply Perfect (GB) 15-1
12 Precious Kitten 30-1