Kenneth Strong takes a deep look at the Kentucky Derby field with a focus on pace, Beyer figures, trainer angles and live longshots. See which contenders he likes most and how he plans to attack the race.
Commandment, Chief Wallabee, tough to separate in 152nd Kentucky Derby
Potente, Pavlovian Live Longshots
Kentucky Derby, Race 12, Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 2.
3-Year-Olds. 1 ¼ Miles. Dirt. Purse $5 Million
2026 Kentucky Derby Picks
- #6 COMMANDMENT
- #12 CHIEF WALLABEE
- #9 THE PUMA (LATE SCRATCH)
- #15 EMERGING MARKET
- #1 RENEGADE
- #14 POTENTE
- #18 FURTHER ADO
2026 Kentucky Derby Longshots
#16 Pavlovian, #7 Danon Bourbon, #10 Wonder Dean, #8 So Happy, #19 Golden Tempo
2026 Kentucky Derby Analysis
Handicapping this year’s Kentucky Derby was excruciating. So many angles, horses that could improve, Japanese horses you can’t really get a bead on, and lightly raced horses that could be sitting on a monster race.
And to top it all off, two of the top jockeys on the planet take off the horse I like best, COMMANDMENT, to ride other horses. Why?
The track should favour horses coming from just off the pace, and there’s enough speed in here to keep the front runners honest. We’re looking for horses that can sit close, that are coming off tough fitness-building races, and that have shown heart and the will to win. Watch the track throughout the day. If it’s favouring speed, we’ll use the pressers. If it’s favouring closers, we change tactics. But our main contenders are built on toughness, fitness, numbers, and trainers.
Here is the key filter that serious handicappers apply every year: since 2000, every Kentucky Derby winner has posted at least one 100-plus Beyer Speed Figure before stepping into that Churchill starting gate. That is not a soft trend. That is a hard floor. Any horse that hasn’t demonstrated he can run a figure in that range against quality competition is asking you to bet on hope rather than evidence.
Horses that will show speed include POTENTE, LITMUS TEST, PAVLOVIAN, SIX SPEED, GREAT WHITE, and ROBUSTA. POTENTE looks like the class of the speed, and trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby six times.
Horses likely to sit just off the pace include COMMANDMENT, CHIEF WALLABEE, EMERGING MARKET, SO HAPPY, THE PUMA, FURTHER ADO, INTREPIDO, and DANON BOURBON. We think the winner will come from this group.
Closers include RENEGADE, ALBUS, WONDER DEAN, GOLDEN TEMPO, and OCELLI. If the track is favouring closers, pay closer attention to these horses.
Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
6 — COMMANDMENT (6-1)
He is the professional in this field. Four wins in a row at progressively longer distances with improving Beyer Figures, by margins ranging from a nose to six and three-quarter lengths. He wins from inside, from outside, between horses, and under different riders. His best Beyer of 101 is the second-highest figure in this field, and his Florida Derby victory over THE PUMA and CHIEF WALLABEE was arguably the strongest prep race of the spring. A four-race win streak heading into Churchill Downs. That is the kind of form you want to see. The rider switch to Luis Saez is a bit of a negative after both Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat chose other mounts, but Brad Cox and Saez have had strong Kentucky-circuit success together, and Cox grew up less than two miles from the Churchill Downs backstretch. The concern is whether COMMANDMENT has peaked rather than soared on figures. His Beyers have been consistent rather than explosive. But a horse that keeps winning through adversity tends to keep doing exactly that. He is my personal choice.
12 — CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1)
The blinkers are the whole story here. He ran green in the Florida Derby and still finished half a length back. Bill Mott watched both races and immediately concluded this horse needed blinkers to sharpen his focus. Mott then put him through a five-furlong Churchill work in the new equipment, and Junior Alvarado came back saying the horse was locked in. Mott won this race last year with SOVEREIGNTY, and Alvarado was aboard for that victory too. They know exactly what a Derby winner feels like underneath them. If the blinkers work the way Mott believes they will, CHIEF WALLABEE wins the Kentucky Derby.
9 — THE PUMA (10-1) * LATE SCRATCH
This is the best blend of hard race, tactical style, and improving Beyer pattern in the field. His figures across three route starts have climbed from an 83 to a 94 to a 100. That is the exact progression you want to see from a Derby contender heading into the biggest mile and a quarter of his life. He has run against the best of this crop every time out — RENEGADE, FURTHER ADO, COMMANDMENT, and CHIEF WALLABEE — and hit the board every single time. He beat FURTHER ADO in the Tampa Bay Derby, then lost to COMMANDMENT by a nose in the Florida Derby while finishing ahead of CHIEF WALLABEE. The trainer and jockey combination of Gustavo Delgado and Javier Castellano won this race in 2023 with Mage. They know what it takes. If THE PUMA has one more figure jump in him, he wins this race.
1 — RENEGADE (4-1)
The morning-line favourite, and it’s easy to see why. He won the Arkansas Derby by four lengths after running last early and closing in relentless fashion, clocking the final furlong in 11.84 seconds, the fastest closing eighth among all Derby preps this cycle. His best Beyer is 98, which is a tick below the top horses on paper, but Beyer figures for closers are notoriously difficult to assign accurately since they depend so heavily on the pace up front. His Thoro-Graph sheet says he is one of the fastest horses in the field and still moving forward. Irad Ortiz chose him over three other viable Derby mounts. That loyalty means something. The problem is the rail. No horse has won from post one since Ferdinand in 1986. The new starting gate provides a bit more room, but a 20-horse Derby from the inside is still a risky proposition for a horse that needs a clean run to the outside. If the rail is live and the pace is honest, RENEGADE is the most dangerous horse in the race.
15 — EMERGING MARKET (15-1)
The inexperience is real, but so is the talent. He has raced exactly twice. He broke his maiden at Tampa Bay and then, in only his second career start, Chad Brown sent him straight into the mile-and-three-sixteenths Louisiana Derby. He wore down PAVLOVIAN in the stretch to win by a head, the kind of effort not many horses can produce that early in their careers. His debut earned a 97 Beyer, and he followed with a 90 in the Louisiana Derby. The figures say he needs to get faster, but two starts in, there is every reason to believe he will. Brown is a conservative trainer who has bypassed the Derby with horses he didn’t think were ready. The fact that he is here is a strong endorsement. More importantly, jockey Flavien Prat had the chance to ride COMMANDMENT, one of the co-favourites, and chose EMERGING MARKET instead. When a rider of Prat’s calibre makes that call, you listen. The last horse with only two starts to win this race was Leonatus in 1883, but history gets rewritten every year.
14 — POTENTE (20-1)
Bob Baffert’s top Derby hope was purchased for $2.4 million as a yearling, and his Beyer figures have improved in every start, moving from a 79 to an 89 to a 95 in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished second behind SO HAPPY despite being the 6-5 favourite. A win here would give Baffert a record seven Derby victories outright. His forward-pressing style fits the race shape, and he has the tactical speed to secure a good early position. The caution is that he may be part of the pace battle rather than the beneficiary of it. His figures are still below the 100-plus threshold that every Derby winner since 2000 has cleared, so he needs to find another five or six points. He’s a live longshot who will be near the front early, and if the pace gets honest in front of him, he can run a big number.
18 — FURTHER ADO (6-1)
He carries the biggest Beyer in the field. His 106 from the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland is five points better than anything any other three-year-old has run this prep season, and he won that race by 11 lengths. He also carries a Churchill Downs win from the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall, so the track holds no mystery for him. John Velazquez has three official Derby wins and a knack for picking up horses late and delivering. The bounce risk is real. A 14-point Beyer jump from his previous effort of 92 is a significant move, and horses can regress sharply when they run too hard in their final prep. Irad Ortiz chose RENEGADE over this horse, which is worth noting. Use him, but don’t build your ticket around him at a price that doesn’t compensate for the risk.
Top Kentucky Derby Longshots
16 — PAVLOVIAN (30-1)
The best longshot who fits the profile we are chasing. He enters with the most career starts of any horse in the field at ten races. He does not need the lead. He tracked the pace in the Sunland Derby and then fought hard on the front end in the Louisiana Derby before EMERGING MARKET wore him down by a head in the final strides. Doug O’Neill has two Derby wins and knows how to get a horse ready for this race. PAVLOVIAN doesn’t need the track to collapse for closers. If he gets to relax early and rate off the pace, he can run a big number at a big price. Small win bet at 30-1 or higher, and use him regularly in third and fourth.
19 — GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1)
The best deep closer for exotics. His Thoro-Graph figures took a meaningful jump when blinkers were added, moving to a 2.5. He lost momentum during the Louisiana Derby and still finished third. His Brisnet figures improved in every start of his career, reaching triple digits in his most recent race. Curlin, his sire, has produced three Kentucky Derby runners-up. This is also his second race with blinkers, a reliable improvement angle. If closers are flying late at Churchill, GOLDEN TEMPO will be finding the line. Use him in third and fourth on every ticket.
10 — WONDER DEAN (30-1)
The Japan-born UAE Derby winner caught pace-setter SIX SPEED, who had six lengths on the field, before grinding him down in the stretch. More grinder than explosive finisher. No comparable U.S. speed figures available, which makes him difficult to evaluate. Japan has yet to win the Kentucky Derby in ten attempts, but their horses have been getting closer. WONDER DEAN handles travel and different track surfaces, and his grinding style could see him collect tired horses late. Third and fourth use only.
7 — DANON BOURBON (20-1)
The Japanese invader that sharp money finds most interesting among the international runners. He is unbeaten in three starts at distances of a mile and an eighth or farther, and none of his rivals have come within three lengths of him. U.S. speed figure comparisons simply aren’t available, which makes him impossible to evaluate with conventional tools. His tactical speed and powerful stride set him apart from WONDER DEAN. Steve Haskin, who has more Derby insight than most, is considerably higher on this horse than the general public. He’s the kind of runner who could make the whole race look obvious afterward if he is genuinely elite. Win saver and use him on top of your exactors.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1 — RENEGADE (4-1)
The morning-line favourite, and it’s easy to see why. He won the Arkansas Derby by four lengths after running last early and closing in relentless fashion, clocking the final furlong in 11.84 seconds, the fastest closing eighth among all Derby preps this cycle. His best Beyer is 98, which is a tick below the top horses on paper, but Beyer figures for closers are notoriously difficult to assign accurately since they depend so heavily on the pace up front. His Thoro-Graph sheet says he is one of the fastest horses in the field and still moving forward. Irad Ortiz chose him over three other viable Derby mounts. That loyalty means something. The problem is the rail. No horse has won from post one since Ferdinand in 1986. The new starting gate provides a bit more room, but a 20-horse Derby from the inside is still a risky proposition for a horse that needs a clean run to the outside. If the rail is live and the pace is honest, RENEGADE is the most dangerous horse in the race.
2 — ALBUS (30-1)
He won the Wood Memorial, but the way he won it tells the wrong story. His Beyer in that victory was actually lower than the figure he posted when he broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs earlier in the year. That Wood Memorial field collapsed on the pace, and ALBUS benefited from the chaos rather than earning it. He is a long shot in a field this deep. Minor exotic use only, and only on a track that is coming completely apart for closers.
3 — INTREPIDO (50-1)
A useful California colt who won the American Pharaoh Stakes last fall but then finished ten lengths back in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. That performance does not suggest a horse ready to step up in the Kentucky Derby. He may develop into something down the road, but this is not his race. Fourth-slot use only if you are spreading very wide on your ticket.
4 — LITMUS TEST (50-1)
Bob Baffert’s second Derby entry carries a forward-pressing style and finished seventh in the Arkansas Derby while RENEGADE was winning it. His Beyer progression has been modest, and he faces a dramatic step up in class here. The Baffert name is always worth a small thought, and the trainer has a record-tying six Derby wins. Sneaky exotic use on a speed-favouring track, but not a serious win contender.
6 — COMMANDMENT (6-1)
See top five above. The most consistent figure horse in the field, the most graded-stakes wins in the field, and the most versatile running style. Very hard to leave out of any ticket. Absolutely knows how to win and we’re hoping Prat and Ortiz made a huge mistake by taking off him.
7 — DANON BOURBON (20-1)
The Japanese invader that the sharp money finds most interesting. He is unbeaten in three starts at distances of a mile and an eighth or farther, and none of his rivals have come within three lengths of him. U.S. speed figure comparisons are unavailable, which makes him nearly impossible to evaluate with conventional tools. Steve Haskin, who has more Derby insight than just about anyone working today, is much higher on this horse than the public. His tactical speed and powerful stride could make the whole race look obvious afterward if he is genuinely elite. Japan has yet to win the Kentucky Derby in ten attempts, but their best recent runner, Forever Young, ran third in 2024. Win saver and top-of-exactor use.
8 — SO HAPPY (15-1)
The Santa Anita Derby winner posted a 100 Beyer in that race and also earned a 121 TimeformUS figure, which puts him in the same company as FURTHER ADO when you cross-reference all the major speed rating services. Mike Smith, one of the greatest riders of his era, is in the irons and is seeking his third Derby win at age 59. Trainer Mark Glatt has never had a Derby starter, and he is the sentimental favourite this year after losing his wife Dena to heart failure in February. The caution on SO HAPPY is pedigree. His sire is champion sprinter Runhappy, and questions remain about whether he gets the mile and a quarter. He also benefited from a perfect trip in the Santa Anita Derby that won’t necessarily repeat. Respect him on a speed-friendly track. Use in exotics but below our top five.
9 — THE PUMA (10-1)
*LATE SCRATCH*
10 — WONDER DEAN (30-1)
The UAE Derby winner is the only Japan-born horse in the field, and he caught pace-setter SIX SPEED, who had six lengths on the field, before grinding him down in the stretch. More grinder than finisher. No comparable U.S. speed figures available. He handles travel and different surfaces, which counts for something, but he is unlikely to have the brilliance needed to win this race. Third and fourth exotic use, especially if the track is favouring late runners.
11 — INCREDIBOLT (20-1)
He is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, which is a credential worth noting. He won the Virginia Derby and has been freshened off a seven-week layoff. The concern is that his last race was a one-turn mile and an eighth against a below-average group, and here he is facing the best three-year-olds in North America around two turns at a mile and a quarter. His Churchill record keeps him live in the fourth slot, but don’t promote him any higher than that.
12 — CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1)
See top five above. The blinkers angle is the key to unlocking this horse’s potential.
14 — POTENTE (20-1)
Bob Baffert’s top Derby hope was purchased for $2.4 million as a yearling, and his Beyer figures have improved in every start, moving from a 79 to an 89 to a 95 in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished second behind SO HAPPY despite being the 6-5 favourite. A win here would give Baffert a record seven Derby victories outright. His forward-pressing style fits the race shape, but he may be part of the pace battle rather than the beneficiary of it. Use more aggressively on a speed-favouring track.
15 — EMERGING MARKET (15-1)
See top five above. The boldest win play at a price.
16 — PAVLOVIAN (30-1)
The best longshot who fits the profile we are chasing. He enters with the most career starts of any horse in the field at ten races. He does not need the lead. He tracked the pace in the Sunland Derby and then fought hard on the front end in the Louisiana Derby before EMERGING MARKET wore him down by a head. His trainer Doug O’Neill has two Derby wins. He doesn’t need the track to collapse for closers. If PAVLOVIAN gets to relax early, he can run a big race at a big price. Small win bet at 30-1 or higher, and use him regularly in third and fourth.
17 — SIX SPEED (50-1)
A pace factor more than a win contender. He set the early fractions in the UAE Derby and got caught by WONDER DEAN. The waters get much deeper here and the distance gets slightly longer. He will likely be involved early and that could benefit the horses sitting just off the pace. Against unless the track is overwhelmingly favouring front-runners.
18 — FURTHER ADO (6-1)
See top five above. Fastest horse on paper, must use, but manage the bounce risk carefully.
19 — GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1)
The best deep closer for third and fourth on any ticket. His Thoro-Graph figures took a meaningful jump when blinkers were added, moving all the way to a 2.5. He lost momentum during the Louisiana Derby and still finished third. His Brisnet figures improved every start of his career, reaching triple digits in his most recent race. Curlin, his sire, has produced three Kentucky Derby runners-up. Second-race blinkers is a reliable improvement angle, and this is his second race with the new equipment. If closers are moving late at Churchill, GOLDEN TEMPO will be finding the line.
21 — GREAT WHITE (50-1)
Won the Battaglia Memorial and showed up in the Blue Grass Stakes. His numbers are below the threshold you want to see for a serious Derby contender. Needs a major jump that there is no evidence is coming. Deep fourth slot only.
22 — OCELLI (50-1)
Late addition to the field. Still a maiden. He would need to become the first maiden Derby winner since Brokers Tip in 1933. His Beyer figures are well below the 100-plus threshold that every Derby winner since 2000 has cleared. Tiny chaos use in the fourth slot only if you are building a very wide ticket.
23 — ROBUSTA (50-1)
Another late addition. He ran a big number in the San Felipe before a poor effort in the Santa Anita Derby. His sire Accelerate improved with age and his damsire Into Mischief gives him legitimate dirt quality, but his form has been inconsistent. Use on a speed-favouring track only, and keep him in the fourth slot.
If the Track Favours Speed
Watch the Churchill dirt throughout the day. If forward horses are holding their positions and speed is carrying, here is how we adjust.
Upgrade PAVLOVIAN, POTENTE, SO HAPPY, ROBUSTA, FURTHER ADO, COMANDMENT and CHIEF WALLABEE. These horses sit close and won’t need a pace collapse to finish. PAVLOVIAN in particular becomes a much more aggressive play, a tactical horse with ten career starts who can sit within striking distance and run down tired horses in the lane. POTENTE’s improving Beyers and forward style become a real asset. Use both more aggressively in all positions.
Downgrade RENEGADE, WONDER DEAN, GOLDEN TEMPO, ALBUS, and OCELLI. On a speed-friendly track, deep closers waiting for a pace meltdown that never comes are betting dead ends. Keep them in the fourth slot if you use them at all.
Speed-track win candidates: THE PUMA, CHIEF WALLABEE, COMMANDMENT, EMERGING MARKET, PAVLOVIAN, FURTHER ADO Use underneath: DANON BOURBON, SO HAPPY, POTENTE, ROBUSTA Fourth slot only: WONDER DEAN, GOLDEN TEMPO, RENEGADE.
If the Track Favours Closers
If early movers are tiring in the lane and late runners are flying past them, here is how we adjust.
Upgrade RENEGADE, GOLDEN TEMPO, WONDER DEAN, DANON BOURBON, and EMERGING MARKET. RENEGADE with a clean trip on a closer track is the most dangerous horse in the field, especially if gets a perfect trip along the rail. His final-furlong closing fraction in the Arkansas Derby was the fastest in this prep cycle. Promote GOLDEN TEMPO and WONDER DEAN from fourth-slot use into second and third. Let them prove you wrong about the price. Downgrade POTENTE, ROBUSTA, SIX SPEED, and PAVLOVIAN. On a closer-friendly track, speed that has been on the front end early becomes vulnerable late.
Closer-track win candidates: RENEGADE, COMMANDMENT, CHIEF WALLABEE, EMERGING MARKET, FURTHER ADO Use second and third: DANON BOURBON, WONDER DEAN, GOLDEN TEMPO Underneath: INCREDIBOLT, PAVLOVIAN, GREAT WHITE, ROBUSTA.
FINAL KENTUCKY DERBY OPINIONS and BETS
My strongest opinions in this race are with COMMANDMENT and CHIEF WALLABEE. CHIEF WALLABEE is the dangerous blinkers horse, COMMANDMENT knows how to win, and PAVLOVIAN and GOLDEN TEMPO are the longshots we do not want beating us in the vertical bets.
I’ll be boxing COMMANDMENT and CHIEF WALLABEE in an Exacta, wheeling those two with my main contenders and longhots in the Trifecta, and keying them in the top two spots with my main contenders and longshots in my Kentucky Derby Superfecta.
Go get ‘em boys!
Looking to bet the Kentucky Derby? Bovada has you covered with full Derby odds, exactas, trifectas and longshot payouts. New players can claim a welcome bonus and get in on the action today. Join Bovada now and lock in your bets before post time.
