Belmont Stakes Picks for Saturday, June 6, 2026
Saratoga, Race 13 | Post Time: 7:04 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million | Distance: 1 1/4 miles | Surface: Dirt
Top Picks
1. #7 Commandment (6-1)
2. #4 Renegade (2-1)
3. #3 Chief Wallabee (3-1)
4. #8 Emerging Market (6-1)
Longshots
#2 Powershift (12-1)
#6 Growth Equity (12-1)
Analysis
The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is not the old mile-and-a-half marathon from Belmont Park, but it is still a serious test. This year’s race is run at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Kentucky Derby, and that puts the Derby horses right back under the microscope.
But this race should not be judged as a simple Derby rematch. The field is smaller. The run to the first turn is different. The pace should be different. And after the first two days of racing at Saratoga, the dirt track has shown a clear preference for horses with speed or tactical position. Deep closers have been able to pass tired horses, but they have not been winning many races.
That makes this Belmont more about position than patience.
Golden Tempo won the Kentucky Derby with a big late run from far back. Renegade nearly beat him after a rough start and a strong rally of his own. Both ran winning races. But if Saratoga continues to play kindly to horses on or near the pace, the deep closers may not get the same setup they had at Churchill Downs.
That is why Commandment gets the call. He was not good enough in the Derby, but his race was not as bad as it looks. He did not get the trip he needed, and the race shape did not help him. His best races came in Florida, where he won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby with speed figures that make him one of the fastest horses in this field.
The key is tactics. John Velazquez cannot ride him like a closer. He has to put him into the race early, sit close enough to the pace, and make the first serious move before Golden Tempo and Renegade get rolling. Commandment has the right running style for that trip. He does not need to be on the lead. He does not need a collapse. He just needs to be in the game when they hit the far turn.
The likely pace comes from Powershift, who is the most interesting longshot in the race. He is lightly raced and stepping way up, but Todd Pletcher would not be taking this swing if he thought the horse had no chance. With Luis Saez aboard, Powershift figures to be sent or placed very close. If he gets loose, he could make things uncomfortable for everybody.
Growth Equity also has enough tactical speed to be involved early, and Chief Wallabee should not be too far away. Emerging Market can sit mid-pack and get first run if the speed does not stop. That should leave Commandment in a perfect stalking position if Velazquez is aggressive enough.
Renegade is the horse to beat. He had the nightmare Derby trip from the rail, got bumped around early, lost position, and still came within a neck of winning. That was a huge effort. Pletcher believes he has come out of the Derby well enough to fire another strong race, and his record says he shows up every time. The concern is price and race shape. At 2-1, everything has to go right. Renegade can win this. He might even be the best horse in the race. But if he is too far back on a track that has been favouring forward horses, he could be left with too much to do again.
Chief Wallabee is the horse who worries me most outside the top two. He ran a solid fourth in the Derby, has a good enough figure to win, and Bill Mott says he has held his condition well through the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby grind. He also gets blinkers for the second time, which could help him stay more focused. The issue is value. At 3-1, he needs to be more than usable. He needs to be better than Commandment and Renegade. I am not sure he is. But he is tactical, honest and dangerous, and he belongs in the top four.
Emerging Market is the horse who can improve enough to make this interesting. His Kentucky Derby can be forgiven. He was too close to a strong pace, lost a shoe, and was making only his third career start. Before that, he won the Louisiana Derby in only his second start, which is not easy to do. Chad Brown has three horses in the race, but Emerging Market looks like the best of them. Flavien Prat stays aboard, and that matters. If he moves forward off his Louisiana Derby, he fits with the main contenders.
Golden Tempo is the Derby winner and must be respected, but he will have to overcome a likely different race shape and a possible speed-friendly track. He is honest, improving and dangerous if they go too fast. But his running style leaves him vulnerable. From post 9, he could be last again early. If the pace is ordinary, he may not get there in time.
Powershift is the longshot who can change the race. He is inexperienced, but he has speed, the right rider, the right trainer, and the right track profile. He does not have to be the best horse to be dangerous. He just has to get comfortable early.
Growth Equity is the other longshot worth using. He won the Peter Pan, is improving, and has the kind of running style that fits the way Saratoga has played. He still has to get faster, but lightly raced 3-year-olds can jump forward in June. At 12-1, he belongs in the exotics.
This Belmont comes down to whether the Derby closers can overcome a different race shape and a speed-friendly Saratoga surface. I do not think they all can.
Commandment has the speed, class, price and tactical style to turn the tables. If Velazquez keeps him close and moves before the deep closers get organized, he can win the Belmont Stakes. We picked him in the Kentucky Derby, and we’re sticking with him at what should be a nice price.
Good Luck!
