2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Odds and Handicapping Analysis
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
4th Race, Monmouth Park, Saturday, October 27
2-year-old Fillies, 1 1/16 miles, Purse $2 Million
2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Analysis
Wagering Key: Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4
Fourteen 2-year-old fillies going a mile and sixteenth in the toughest race of their life and no standout play – you should get your price if you can find the right horse.
In a race lacking any real speed CRY AND CATCH ME could go wire to wire if she can overcome her terrible wide post 13. Some say she just held on to win a major prep for this, the Oak Leaf-G1 over fellow entrant IZARRA, but she was on or close to the pace throughout in that race, battled into the stretch, turned back one set of rivals, and THEN, she dug in three times to turn back IZARRA before winning by a nose. We think it was a good race and she can rate just off the pace if need be. We do note however, that her Beyer Figure regressed a little on the stretch out.
Also, IZARRA may have got an education in that race. She was hard held in minor trouble early, stalked five wide and did make a strong run when asked. She could certainly improve and would definitely benefit from a pace battle up front.
INDIAN BLESSING may take more betting action than her stablemate CRY AND CATCH ME. She was hard rated early in the Frizette-G1 before demolishing her field and does have the top Beyer Figure of 97, which she recorded in her maiden win, but she has only run twice and she did come home slow in the Frizette which is something to think about at a short price.
GRACE ANATOMY could be the medium longshot of the race. She came off a 45-day layoff to run a good third in the Alcibiades-G1 on the Polytrack after a terrible ride by Mike Smith in which she was left in the gate, made an early move 5-wide to catch up to the leaders, then again moved early in late turn to take over the lead before tiring late. The bonus she gets a rider switch to Frankie Dettori as Smith goes to CRY AND CATCH ME. A to the CROFT also comes out of the Alcibiades, in fact she beat GRACE ANATOMY with a decent late run (and a better ride.) She is improving on the Beyer scale and could be a factor with a pace battle up front.
The last horse we like as a longshot is SMARTY DEB, trained by Doris Harwood, who set a new record for stakes wins at Emerald Downs this season. Undefeated and improving on the Beyer scale, DEB is moving up in class for this but she is a perfect 4-for-4, shes won around two turns, shes already beaten males and she looked good working over the Monmouth track – lots to like at 30-1 in a field with no standouts.
Below follow the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies entries with post positions and morning line odds. Check back Thursday for our final Breeders Cup Fillies picks.
2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Entries and Morning Line Betting Odds
Post Horse Odds
1 Phantom Income 30-1
2 Clearly Foxy 30-1
3 Tasha’s Miracle 10-1
4 Indian Blessing 3-1
5 Irish Smoke 8-1
6 Set Play Brice 6-1
7 Backseat Rhythm 12-1
8 Izarra 6-1
9 Smarty Deb 30-1
10 Proud Spell 5-1
11 Zee Zee 30-1
12 Grace Anatomy 10-1
13 Cry and Catch Me 6-1
14 A to the Croft 10-1
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