2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf Betting Odds and Handicapping Analysis
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
10th Race, Monmouth Park, Saturday, October 27
3-and-up, 1 1/2 Miles, Turf, Purse $3 Million
2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf Betting Analysis
Wagering Key: Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double
No surprises here. If DYLAN THOMAS runs his race they can’t beat him. Even if he’s 85 percent he should still win. He owns the best two performances on the turf going 1 miles - in the world - this year - with wins in the Arc de Triomphe-G1 and the King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes-G1. The knockers will say he lugged in late in the Arc, which he did, but he still got the job done and a similar performance wins this race.
We just tried to imagine any of the other horses in this race being in the Arc, and where they would have finished. We can’t help but think none of them would have been in the first four. If the real DYLAN THOMAS shows up he wins.
ENGLISH CHANNEL won the United Nations-G1 at Monmouth earlier this year so he likes the course. In his last race however, he got through along the rail in the drive and didn’t beat anything special. RED ROCKS won this race last year over fellow entrants BETTER TALK NOW and ENGLISH CHANNEL, but he has been off form of late. That being said, he has been rested and does get Lasix and Frankie Dettori back so - be careful. He could upset with his best.
BETTER TALK NOW was beaten only half a length by RED ROCKS in this race last year and a similar performance makes him a contender - alas - we still think they’re all running for second money if DYLAN comes ready to play.
Below follow the Breeders’ Cup Turf entries with post positions and morning line odds. Check back Thursday for our final Breeders’ Cup picks.
2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf Entries and Morning Line Betting Odds
Post Horse Odds
1 Fri Guy 50-1
2 Red Rocks (IRE) 7-2
3 Better Talk Now 9-2
4 Shamdinan (FR) 20-1
5 Grand Couturier (GB) 10-1
6 English Channel 5-2
7 Dylan Thomas (IRE) 7-5
8 Transduction Gold 30-1