2010 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Odds, Picks, Analysis Handicapping Churchill Downs
by Ken Strong, Professional Horse Handicapper, Predictem.com
Race 6, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010
Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies, Distance: 1 Mile, Purse: $1,000,000 Surface: Turf
The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf has been run only twice, both times at Santa Anita and both times won by Belmont Park-based fillies exiting the same race, the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. In 2008 Maram won the Miss Grillo by a neck going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf before winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In 2009 Tapitsfly finished second in the Miss Grillo, which was run on the dirt going a mile, before winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Both Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winners had an off the pace running style and both paid double digits, with Maram returning $24.20 and Tapitsfly paying off at $21.60. That might have been enough to send us long shot hunting if it wasnt for the fact that the early 2010 favorite for this race is Winter Memories, who enters off a romping win in you guessed it the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. And she certainly looked like she was only going to get better off that race.
The European fillies did not run well in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita, but they might just like the cooler weather, longer stretch, and more giving turf at Churchill Downs. They are also better fillies than those who ventured across the ocean for the last two renewals of this race.
European shipper Together finished third beaten a nose in the 20-horse seven-furlong Tattersalls Millions in her last start, after drifting out late and then coming on again. In the same race, Tale Untold gained determinedly late to finish second beaten a nose. If you put Winter Memories in the Tattersalls Millions race were not so sure she would have been an easy winner or a winner at all. But she definitely has some upside. Theyskens’s Theory finished a hard-trying third in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile at Ascot after tracking the leader throughout, but was beaten about 1 -lengths by Together, who finished second.
Kathmanblu comes into the Juvenile Fillies Turf off a something-left win in the Jessamine going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf at Keeneland. She looks like she might be at the same stage of her career as Winter Memories ready to move forward.
New Normal comes into the Juvenile Fillies Turf off a wire-to-wire victory in the Natalma going a mile on the turf at Woodbine and could be a serious pace threat on the front end should she go unchallenged early. Fellow Breeders Cup entrant More Than Real rallied to finish second beaten about 1 -lengths in the Natalma but really didnt have an excuse, as the winner turned back a decent bid in the drive from an also eligible in this race, Dos Lunas, before holding safe. Jordy Y is an interesting long shot moving from dirt to turf after finishing a good-bid third beaten two lengths by heavily favored Wickedly Perfect going a mile and a sixteenth over Keenelands Polytrack in the Alcibiades.
Our first look at this race tells us it comes down to the fitter and battle-tested Europeans Together, Tale Untold and Theyskens’s Theory against the improving Winter Memories and Kathmanblu, with New Normal having a legitimate shot if she can get a decent trip up front. At the time of this writing, nine days before the race, Tale Untold (15-1) and Kathmanblu (8-1) would seem to offer the best value.
2010 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Pre-Entries with Early Morning-Line Odds
Winter Memories (3-1)
Theyskens’s Theory (5-1)
More Than Real (10-1)
New Normal (12-1)
Street Chimes (12-1)
Tale Untold (15-1)
Fancy Point (15-1)
Arch Support (20-1)
Quiet Oasis (20-1)
Flood Plain (20-1)
Jordy Y (30-1)
Allure d’Amour (30-1)
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf also eligibles:
Silent Joy (30-1)
Dos Lunas (30-1)
Forest Legend (30-1)
Nina Fever (30-1)