2008 Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders, Odds and Comments
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
Last Updated Monday, April 28, 2008
Obviously we’ll be keeping Big Brown and Bob Black Jack on our contenders list, but we do like a few longshots as follows.
Colonel John worked 5/8ths in an excellent 57.61 at Churchill Downs on Sunday to put himself back on top of our list. That and the good possibility that Bob Black Jack will be in the field to ensure an honest pace makes us think the race will set up for Colonel John. Big Brown will have to put both Gayego and Bob Black Jack away on the turn if they run, open up into the stretch and then hold safe. This will be no easy feat if were right in thinking that the California contingent is not only fitter than the rest of the field, but also more talented. And who did Big Brown beat in his last? We like the fact that Denis of Cork looks like hell get in, as his last race was a throw out. He had a good work at Churchill Downs on Monday, as did Big Truck. The odds below reflect our current opinion of each horse. Sportsbook odds may differ significantly.
Horse - Odds - Comments for 2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders
1. Colonel John (5/2) - Big recent work and the fact that it looks like the race will set up for him puts the Santa Anita Derby winner back on top of our list.
2. Big Brown (3-1) If both Gayego and Bob Black Jack end up in the Derby he will have his hooves full battling with these two on the final turn. But, he does have an excellent stamina pedigree and room for improvement. Difficult to tell how good he is, but these are better than he has faced.
3. Gayego (6-1) Confirmed that the California horses were legitimate with a fast pace-pressing win in the Arkansas Derby. Should improve again and he is a game one.
4. Pyro (8-1) His Polytrack experiment in the Bluegrass was a flop but he could rebound at a nice price when back on the Derby dirt with a perfect trip and a good pace to run at.
5. Denis of Cork (15-1) Upset by a longshot speed horse in the Illinois Derby, we cant believe hes that bad. Not sure if hes fit enough but good recent work keeps him in the mix.
6. Court Vision (15-1) Has been working well for star trainer Bill Mott. Loved the way he finished in the Wood Memorial and should be all set for Derby day now. Gets blinkers.
7. Z Fortune (20-1) - Good second behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby puts him back on the contender list as a horse with an in-the-money shot.
8. Tale of Ekati (20-1) Gutted out Wood Memorial win and could improve again.
9. Big Truck (25-1) Good recent work at Churchill indicates he has bounced back from terrible Blue Grass gallop in which he never ran a jump over the Polytrack.
10. Adriano (30-1) - Lanes End win was decent but still needs a real test of class. Got a vote of confidence when Prado chose him over Tale of Ekati.
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