Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Preview and Pick – Garland vs. Peavy

Arizona Diamondbacks (25-32) Jon Garland +159, 7.5 O/U at San
Diego Padres (26-30) Jake Peavy -169, 7.5 O/U, Petco Park, San
Diego, Calif., 10:05 PM EST, Monday

by Badger of

The San Diego Padres will try for the series split Monday at Petco
Park with their ace Jake Peavy on the bump in the finale of a four-
game set with National League West rival Arizona. The D-Backs will
counter with right-hander Jon Garland as they try to continue their
climb out of the NL West cellar.

The D-Backs won yesterdays 18-inning marathon by attrition, 9-6,
when Mark Reynolds hit a three-run homerun off of the Padres 10th and
final pitcher of the game, infielder Josh Wilson. Arizona used eight
pitchers in the win, with four guys combining to hold the Padres
hitless throughout the extra nine innings of the game.

The marathon victory gave the D-Backs at least a series split, as
they took Fridays series opener with an 8-0 shutout win before San
Diego won Saturdays game 6-4.

Baseball oddsmakers opened Peavy and San Diego as large -180
favorites on the moneyline, but that number has settled down to -165
through -175 depending on where you wager. Arizona is listed as high
as +159 on the dimeline at 5Dimes Sportbook. The over/under total is listed
at 7.5 at most offshore sportsbooks.

Peavy has pitched against Arizona twice already this season, and the
D-Backs improved from game one to game two, so it will be interesting
to see what adjustments Peavy makes to his game plan. On May 6th
Peavy went seven innings and gave up two runs on four hits, but the
next time through on May 27th the D-Backs got him for four runs and
eight hits in a shorter 6.1-inning stint.

Ironically, Peavy lost the first game 3-1, but won the latter 8-5, so
thats baseball for you. The other thing to watch for is the fact
Peavy left his last start against Philadelphia after just one inning
(gave up four runs) due to a respiratory infection, something the has
to make the Padres brass worried following yesterdays bullpen-
draining marathon.

Peavy will have the extra pressure of trying to salvage as least
something for the Padres on this home stand, as they were swept by
the Dodgers and have won only one game out of the seven-game stand so

Garland has been scuffling the last few weeks, going 0-3 with a 7.36
ERA and giving up 20 hits and 10 walks in just 14.2 innings. But most
of that damage was two starts ago against the Braves (2.2 IP, 9 H, 8
R), as his last outing against the Dodgers was a strong one (6 IP, 4
H, 1 R).

Garland has also faced his new NL West rivals this season, but only
once back on May 6th when he beat Peavy in the aforementioned 3-1 D-
Back victory. The D-Backs would love to get an outing from Garland
tonight like his first one, as he held the Padres scoreless with
three hits in seven innings. He has done well against the Padres
before that too, as he is 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA and a .164 batting
average in three career starts.

All three games in this series at Petco have gone over the total, and
four of the five at Petco so far in 2009 have cash in for the over.
The only game that did not finish over the 3-1 gem pitched by
Garland and Peavy on May 6th.

Some other betting trends that add intrigue to the matchup: the
Padres are 8-3 in Peavys last 11 home starts against the D-Backs;
the under is 4-0 in Peavys last four games at Petco vs. Arizona; the
D-Backs are 4-1 in Garlands last five starts versus the NL West.

Neither team seems to like umpire Joe Wests strike zone either, as
the D-Backs are 2-6 in their last eight with West behind the dish and
San Diego is 0-5 with West calling balls and strikes.

Badgers Pick: Peavy started last week with a respiratory infection,
so the question surrounding his strength scares me off of him at the
high juice. Garland hasnt pitched well enough to earn my trust
either. Seriously thin bullpens could make this ugly if things go bad
early. Take the over of 7.5.