Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks

by | Last updated May 1, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Sunday, May 1st, 1:37 ET
Location: Rogers Centre
Money Line: Astros 130 / Blue Jays -155 (Get the best MLB Lines >>>)
Total Line: 7.5


Houston: Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.15)
Toronto: Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.19)


Houston Astros: 11-10-0 SU / OU 7-14-0 / Run Line W/L 9-12-0
Toronto Blue Jays: 14-8-0 SU / OU 8-14-0 / Run Line W/L 9-13-0

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros on Sunday, May 1st at Rogers Centre. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 1:37 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-55), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Astros suffered a 1 run loss to the Toronto by a score of 2-1. The loss came as Houston was the betting underdogs, getting 105.0. Through 6 games as the underdog, the team has a win percentage of 50.0%. On their way to giving up 2 runs, the Houston pitching staff allowed a total of 6 hits. Offensively, the team generated a total of 8 hits of their own. Combined the Astros and Toronto fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.5 runs. So far, Houston has been a good candidate to fall below the betting lines, as their over-under record sits at just 7-14-0.

The Astros are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 9. In their last 5 contests, Houston is averaging 4.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 3.81. Houston’s overall series record is just 2-3-2.

The Blue Jays are coming off a tight 2-1 win over Houston. In the game, Toronto was able to take care of business as they were the favorites at -158.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 15 games, winning at a rate of 73.0%. Offensively, Toronto came up with 6 hits, while the team’s pitching staff allowed 8 hits, leading to 1 run. On the season Houston’s over-under record is just 8-14-0.

In their last 5 games, the Blue Jays have put together a record of 3-2. Toronto has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at -7. Offensively, Toronto’s lineup has been steady 3.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per-game average of 4.05. On the season, Toronto has won more than half of their series, going 5-0-2.

Pitching Matchup

For the Astros, Framber Valdez gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-1. To date, Valdez has an ERA of 3.15 while lasting an average of 5.0 innings per appearance. Through 4 starts, opposing team’s have combined for a batting average of 0.222. Not only does Valdez have a strong batting average allowed figure, but he has yet to give up a home run. Up to this point, Valdez’s has a strikeout percentage of 19.5% and a per 9 average of 8.0. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.0 walks per outing.

For the Blue Jays, Kevin Gausman gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-1. Heading into his matchup vs. Houston, Gausman has a strong ERA, sitting at just 2.19. This has come while averaging 6.05 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, he has a combined batting average allowed of 0.266. A strength of Kevin Gausman’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 32.6%.

Houston vs Toronto History

So far, the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros have met up 5 times, with Toronto winning the season series 3-2. Through 5 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-3, with the average run total sitting at 11.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.6 runs. Going back to last year, Houston won the season series, 4 games to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-2. Last year, Houston and Toronto averaged 11.33 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 5.33 runs per contest.

Key Injuries

Houston Astros
Michael Brantley: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
Jose Altuve: Hamstring (10-DAY IL)
Ryan Pressly: Knee (10-DAY IL)
Taylor Jones: Back (60-DAY IL)
Lance McCullers Jr.: Forearm (60-DAY IL)
Jake Meyers: Shoulder (10-DAY IL)

Toronto Blue Jays
Tayler Saucedo: Hip (10-DAY IL)
Teoscar Hernandez: Oblique (10-DAY IL)
Cavan Biggio: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
Ryan Borucki: Finger (10-DAY IL)
Danny Jansen: Oblique (10-DAY IL)
Nate Pearson: Illness (10-DAY IL)
Hyun Jin Ryu: Forearm (10-DAY IL)

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Betting Trends

  • Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
  • Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

With both starters coming into this game having pitched well, I see Toronto holding the edge on offense. Although the Blue Jays have yet to truly find their power stroke, they still rank 7th in team batting average. This same trend has been taking place when facing left-handed pitching. So far, they have been able to string together hits but have yet to damage with extra-base hits. I see today’s game as a possible turning point for the team.

Free Pick:

Toronto ML

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