Astros vs. Giants Odds & Picks

by | Jul 30, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (63-40) vs. San Francisco Giants (64-38)

When: 9:45 p.m., Friday, July 30

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: HOU -105/SF -115 (Bookmaker)

Runline: Astros +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (6-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (9-4, 2.21 ERA, 0.91 WHIP)

Home Disparity

One of the big reasons for the Giants’ success is that they’ve been outstanding at home this season. San Francisco owns a 33-16 mark in games played at Oracle Park, and the Giants are coming off two wins out of three over the Dodgers, which increased their cushion in a tight NL West race.

But when Kevin Gausman takes the ball at home, things don’t exactly go according to plan. The Giants won that series against the Dodgers but lost their previous home series to the Pirates, in part because Gausman got roughed up in a 10-2 loss to the beleaguered Bucs. For whatever reason, Gausman just hasn’t looked as comfortable in the Bay Area as he has on the road, as his ERA is 3.10 at Oracle Park and 1.55 away from home.

It’s been his recent performances that have been a big concern, though, as his ERA over his past three starts has been a staggering 6.08, in large part because batters have started to figure out how to get hits off him. Over his past three appearances, his WHIP has been nearly double his season total.

Grip It and Rip It

A struggling Gausman would be fantastic for the Astros, who have seen their bats ignite this week even by their own lofty standards. Houston leads the majors in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage, but the Astros took that to another level against Seattle earlier in the week, scoring 27 runs in the series and banging out 40 hits in the Pacific Northwest.

The big question for the Astros is whether they can stay consistent because recent games have shown that they’ve had trouble sustaining big outbursts. Houston has been one of the best over bets in the game this season, but the Astros haven’t had more than three consecutive overs since June 17, and that was when they were fortunate enough to play back-to-back series with Minnesota and Texas. However, Houston already showed it can master one pitcher’s park by getting the job done in Seattle, and the Giants haven’t exactly been keeping opponents from scoring as of late.

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Quick Start Stros

If you’re the type of bettor who likes to get in and get out as quickly as possible, the Astros are your team. Granted, betting the Astros on the money line has paid off pretty nicely as of late, as the Stros are 7-2 in their past nine games. However, that includes a loss at Cleveland in which the Tribe came up big in the sixth and an absolute collapse against Seattle. Had you gone first-five with those games, you’d have cashed there along with the other seven wins. The Astros haven’t failed to take the lead after five since a 4-0 loss on July 18 at Chicago.

Unless they’re facing a struggling David Price, starting fast really isn’t part of San Francisco’s repertoire. The Giants are just 2-6 in their past eight games at the first-five mark. Incredibly, the Giants came back to win three of those games (in large part thanks to the Dodgers’ weak bullpen), but if you’re a first-five bettor, the Giants haven’t been the way to go as of late. San Francisco usually proves to be a much better live-bet moneyline opportunity, as the Giants have shown they are never truly out of the game.

Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 13-5 in their past 18 road games.
  • The Astros are 36-16 in their past 52 games overall.
  • The Giants are 9-2 in their past 11 interleague home games.
  • The Giants are 8-1 in their past nine Friday games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Astros’ past five interleague games.
  • The over is 6-2 in the Astros’ past eight games.
  • The under is 5-2 in the Giants’ past seven interleague games.
  • The under is 7-3 in the past ten meetings.
  • The Astros have won seven of the past eight against the Giants.

Weather Report

The wind will have some force to it, blowing at 12 miles per hour toward the fence in left-center. It’s going to be a cool night for baseball, with temperatures at 60 degrees at first pitch.

Dan’s Pick

With Gausman really struggling at the moment and not a great home pitcher anyway, it’s tough to trust him or the Giants in this one. Houston enters this game in fine form after dispatching Seattle, and the Astros don’t have the bullpen issues the Dodgers do, making a Giants’ comeback at the end substantially less likely.

I feel most comfortable going first-five in this one with the Astros, but I think you’ll be good to go taking Houston for the full game on the moneyline. Another way to bet this game is to watch for a bit and jump in after you get a feel for what’s going on. Lots of online sportsbooks offer live betting, but the live wagering platform at Bovada Sportsbook is head and shoulders above the rest! Check it out for yourself!

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