Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Pick 7/29/19

by | Jul 29, 2019 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (62-44) vs. Washington Nationals (56-49), 7/29/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Monday, July 29
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel (3-3, 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Patrick Corbin (8-5, 3.25, 1.15)
TV: ESPN, FS Southeast, MASN

Moneyline: Nationals -150/Braves +140 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 9.5

The Nationals will try to make some ground on the Braves in their NL East divisional race when the teams meet for a three-game series in DC starting Monday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Washington and Corbin at around -145 over Atlanta and Keuchel, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line a nickel, up to -150.

Braves vs. Nationals Set-Up

Atlanta just took two of three games in Philadelphia over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 9-4. The series before that the Braves got swept two games by Kansas City, and just before that they split four games with these Nationals. Going back a bit further Atlanta is 1-2-1 over its last four series and only 4-7 over its last 11 games.

Washington, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at home to the Dodgers over the weekend, avoiding a sweep with an 11-4 victory Sunday. Just before that the Nationals took three of four games from Colorado, and just before that, as mentioned above, they split four games with these Braves. So Washington is 1-1-1 over its last three series and 6-5 over its last 11 games.

At 62-44 overall the Braves lead the NL East by 5.5 games over the 56-49 Nationals. Atlanta is also 6.5 games behind the Dodgers in the battle for the best record in the National League, but it leads three teams by 5.5 games in the race for the No. 2 spot.

Washington, meanwhile, is also tied with the Cubs and St. Louis for the lead in the National League wild-card race.

The Nationals lead the season series with the Braves five games to four.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Corbin, by our strict standards, is 12/21 on quality starts this season and five for his last seven. Last Wednesday he held the Rockies scoreless on three hits through six innings of a 2-0 Washington win. And over his last seven starts, he’s allowed just eight runs and 35 hits through 45 innings, with 57 strikeouts against 11 walks.

The Nationals are 13-8 with Corbin this season, 6-1 over his last seven starts.

Over his last three starts against Atlanta, two previous years while still with Arizona and one earlier this season, Corbin allowed seven runs and 18 hits through 17 innings. His teams lost two of those three games.

Fellow southpaw Keuchel is 4/7 on quality starts this year, and four for his last five. Last Tuesday he limited the Royals to two runs and three hits through six innings, with 12 whiffs, although the Braves lost that game 5-4. And over his last five starts, he’s allowed 11 earned runs and 25 hits through 33 innings.

Atlanta is 3-4 with Keuchel this year, but he actually deserves a little better than that.

In his only start this year against Washington, just over a month ago, Keuchel gave up four runs – three earned – and eight hits over five innings of a 4-3 Braves loss.

Monday’s Batting Splits

Atlanta is batting .267/.336/.465 against left-handed pitching this season.

Washington is batting .279/.353/.474 against LH pitching this season.

Both these lineups rank among the top half-dozen or so in the Majors in this split.

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The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 3.97 ERA this season and a 1.39 WHIP while allowing a .744 OPS.

The Nationals pen owns a 6.04 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP while allowing an .811 OPS. Numbers like those “help” this unit rank among the worst three bullpens in Baseball.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 53-48 in Braves games this season.
  • Unders are 51-48 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs are 26-25 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Unders are 5-3 in Braves-Nationals games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 19-9 with Corbin and Keuchel this season.

Free MLB Pick

Washington’s been hot over the last six weeks or so, but we expect a cooling off. Atlanta, meanwhile, is struggling a bit as of late but we expect improvement. Also, that Nationals bullpen scares us. We like the Braves here at the underdog price.

Take the Braves +140