Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick 5/29/21

by | May 29, 2021 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (24-25) vs. New York Mets (24-20)
When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, May 29
Where: Citi Field, New York
Moneyline: ATL -157/NYM +147 (Find the best Sportsbooks >>>)
Runline: Braves -1.5/Mets +1.5
Total: 9
Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (4-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Tajuan Walker (3-1, 2.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP)

Taking Time Off

These teams got an unexpected day off on Friday, and unlike most of the teams who saw a weather-related postponement, they aren’t going to try to shoehorn in a doubleheader on Saturday. That’s because of two main reasons, which could give both teams the rest they need. First, unlike most of the other affected games, there are so many games between the Braves and Mets that they could easily squeeze in another game somewhere. Second, the rain in the forecast means there’s little the teams can do before the scheduled start time of 7 p.m.

This could be a double-edged sword for these squads because, on the one hand, baseball is a sport that’s heavily based on staying in a rhythm when what you’re doing is working. On the other, a day off can be vital in this day and age, and the Mets, in particular, have battled so many health problems that they’d almost rather play the Braves at full strength later in the season. Whichever team can put its day off gift to its advantage will have a leg up here.

Tight and Low-Scoring

The way the Mets-Braves season series has played out so far fits perfectly with who these teams are and what they do well. New York hasn’t been able to hit worth anything all season long, and Atlanta hasn’t been much better at the dish. If a return home to Queens was supposed to encourage the Mets’ offense, it backfired spectacularly. In a four-game set with the Rockies, the Mets scored ten runs for the entire series and won three out of four.

It was more of the same against Atlanta, which took just one of three off the Mets in the teams’ first series of the season. With neither team likely to produce offense, the pressure is elevated on the starting pitcher. Each pitcher in this game knows that for his team to have a chance to win, they have to be pretty close to perfect because even one run given up could swing the game to the opponent. That kind of pressure can work either way, but with Walker coming off an injury, it seems likely to favor the Braves.

Lucky Number One

One reason Atlanta is starting to rise the NL East is that the pitching has been consistent across the board, but the level to which Braves hurlers have performed this week has been special. Until Thursday’s loss to Boston, Atlanta was working on a four-game win streak where it held the opponent to one run exactly in four consecutive games.

That’s not likely to repeat itself after the Red Sox finally solved Atlanta on Thursday, but the Braves don’t really need it to repeat itself. All they need is for Ian Anderson to continue to display the form he’s shown for most of this season. In five of his nine starts this year, the Braves’ hurler has given up either a single run or nothing at all. He does sometimes walk more hitters than he should, but he usually more than makes up for that by scattering hits and preventing scoring chances.

The one problem Anderson has is that teams in the division seem to understand what they need to do against him after seeing him so often. Of the four starts in which Anderson has given up more than a single run, three of them came against the Phillies and Marlins, the latter of whom Anderson faced twice during COVID.

Betting Trends

  • The Braves are 6-2 In their past eight road games.
  • The Braves are 7-3 in their past 10 against the AL East,
  • The Mets are 3-7 in their past 10 Saturday games.
  • The Mets are 8-1 in their past nine home games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Mets’ past five games.
  • The under is 6-0 in the Braves’ past six games as a road favortie.
  • The under is 18-8-2 in the past 28 meetings in New York.
  • The Braves are 4-1 in their past five trips to New York.

Weather Report

Good luck driving the ball too hard in these conditions. Temperatures will be as high as 52 degrees with winds blowing in from right field at 16 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Mets did win three out of four in their most recent series, but they did it against the Rockies, and they’re facing a tough test in Anderson, who they haven’t seen yet this season. Atlanta has emerged as the winner in seven of Anderson’s past eight starts this year, and the Mets don’t really seem to have the hitters to match up with the Braves. I’ll take Atlanta here. Bet this weekend’s picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).