Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Picks 7/26/20

by | Jul 26, 2020 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (101-61) vs. New York Mets (103-59), 7/26/20

Listed Pitchers: Sean Newcomb (6-3, 3.16) vs. Rick Porcello (14-12, 5.52 in 2019

Time: 7:08 pm ET Sunday, July 26

Where: Citi Field, New York, NY

TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Braves -110 /Mets -110 (5Dimes - Bet on baseball all season long at discounted odds!)

Over/Under: 8.5

After splitting the first two games of their season-opening NL East rivalry series, the Braves and Mets meet for a rubber match Sunday evening in Queens. New York won the series opener Friday on a home run, then came within one strike of winning Saturday, before blowing it. How are we playing Sunday’s game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Newcomb at around -110 over New York and Porcello, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then flipped the Mets into -110 favorites.

Braves vs. Mets Set-Up

New York grabbed the opener of this series, the opener of this long-postponed and now abbreviated 2020 season, 1-0 Friday night, but Atlanta won Saturday 5-3 in 10 innings. The Mets won Friday on a solo homer by Yoenis Cespedes in the bottom of the seventh inning and five scoreless innings from Jake deGrom. New York then got within one strike of winning Saturday, but Braves’ newcomer Marcell Ozuna homered off dinger-prone Edwin Diaz to send the game to extra innings. Atlanta then pushed across three runs in the top of the tenth and hung on for the victory.

The Mets won Friday as -170 favorites with deGrom on the hill, while the Braves came back to win Saturday as -125 favorites with five innings from Max Fried and five more from the bullpen.

Also, Friday’s game played under a total of 7.5 runs, and Saturday’s game stayed under a total of nine.

Atlanta, a season after going 97-65, is playing against a wins over/under of 33.5 for this 60-game 2020 season, the second-highest total in the National League.

A year after going 86-76, New York faces a wins O/U of 32 for this season.

Last year Atlanta took the season series from the Mets 11 games to eight, going 5-4 at Citi Field.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Porcello, the 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner, hit just 13/32 on quality starts last season while still with Boston. He also posted the worst ERA of career, along with a 1.39 WHIP, and gave up 31 home runs.

The Red Sox managed to go 18-14 when Porcello started last year, thanks mainly to some pretty good run support.

Porcello’s last start against Atlanta came back in 2018 when over five innings, he allowed just one run and two hits of a 5-1 Boston win.

Lefty Newcomb hit one/four on quality starts last season, to go along with 51 appearances in relief. On the whole, he posted a 1.32 WHIP while allowing just eight HR through 68 1/3 innings. He also allowed only three earned runs after Aug. 16 last year.

Atlanta played 3-1 when Newcomb started last season.

Over seven appearances against the Mets last year, Newcomb allowed eight runs and nine hits through 6 1/3 innings. In his one start against New York, he got rocked for four runs in less than two innings, but the Braves won that game anyway 11-7.

MLB Betting Trends

New York played 48-33 at home last season.

Atlanta played 47-34 on the road last season.

New York played 18-23 against left-handed starters last season.

Atlanta played 74-51 against right-handed starters last season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 78-76 in Braves games last season.
  • Overs played 76-70 in Mets games last season.
  • Totals split 37-37 in games played at Citi Field last season.
  • Totals split 8-8 in Braves-Mets games last season.
  • Overs played 20-11 when Porcello started last season.

Free MLB Pick

We might give the Mets a short edge in the pitching match-up for Sunday, but the Braves might use Newcomb as an “opener,” turning most of the game over to their bullpen. And that’s a department where Atlanta owns an advantage. Plus, we give the Braves a slight edge with the sticks. So we’re betting the Braves Sunday at the short underdog price. Bet today’s this week’s games for free by taking advantage of a sweet 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!