Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick 7/26/19

by | Jul 26, 2019 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (60-43) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (54-48), 7/26/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Friday, July 26
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Listed Pitchers: Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.40,
TV: MLB, FS South, NBC 10

Moneyline: Braves -125/Phillies +115
Over/Under: 10

NL East rivals clash when the division-leading Braves visit the Phillies for a three-game weekend series beginning Friday night. Atlanta is actually stumbling a bit as of late, while Philadelphia is trying to make ground in the National League playoff races. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Soroka at around -125 over Philly and Arrieta, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 10.

Braves vs. Phillies Set-Up

Atlanta just got swept two games at home by Kansas City, losing Wednesday’s series finale 2-0. The Braves then had Thursday off.

Just before that Atlanta split four games with Washington, and just before that they lost two of three at Milwaukee. So the Braves are 0-2-1 over their last three series and 2-6 over their last eight games.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, just swept two games in Detroit, winning Wednesday 4-0. The Phillies then also had Thursday off.

Just before that Philly took two of three games at Pittsburgh, and just before that they won two of the last three games of a series against the Dodgers, so the Phillies are 5-1 over their last six games.

At 60-43 overall Atlanta leads the NL East by 4.5 games over the Nationals and by 5.5 games over 54-48 Philadelphia.

The Braves also trail the Dodgers by 6.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National League, but they’re 4.5 games clear of three teams for that No. 2 spot.

The Phillies also trail the Cubs, St. Louis and Washington by just one game in the NL wild-card race.

Atlanta leads the season series with Philadelphia five games to four.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Arrieta, by our strict standards, is only 8/20 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last five. Last Friday he came within one out of a QS, holding Pittsburgh to one run and six hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-1 Phillies victory. And just before that he held the Nationals to one run through five innings. But over his three starts previous to that he gave up 14 earned runs and 28 hits through 16 1/3 innings.

On the season Philadelphia is 12-8 with Arrieta, 4-1 over his last five starts, thanks in part to some good run support.

Over his last three outings against the Braves, two last year and one earlier this season, Arrieta allowed five runs and 14 hits through 14 2/3 innings. The Phillies won two of those three games.

Soroka is 11/17 on quality starts this year but only one for his last three. Last Saturday he gave up four runs and nine hits through six innings of a 5-3 Atlanta loss to Washington. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed eight runs and 24 hits through 17 2/3 innings.

The Braves are 13-4 with Soroka this year and 8-1 over his last nine starts.

In his only career start against Philadelphia, three weeks ago, Soroka gave up four runs and nine hits over 4 2/3 innings, although Atlanta won that game anyway 12-6.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Atlanta is batting .260/.337/.452 against right-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia is batting .240/.320/.413 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 3.93 ERA this season and a 1.39 WHIP while allowing a .742 OPS.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.74 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP while allowing an .801 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 50-48 in Braves games this season.
  • Unders are 53-46 in Phillies games this season.
  • Unders are 28-22 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
  • Overs are 6-3 in Braves-Phillies games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 20-15 with Arrieta and Soroka this season.

Free MLB Pick

Atlanta and Soroka appear to own the edge in the pitching match-up, but Arrieta’s been good against the Braves. Meanwhile, Atlanta holds advantages with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, but Philadelphia is just playing the better ball recently. Plus, the Phillies are getting a home-dog price. We’re going with Philly for our free MLB pick for Friday.

Take the Phillies +115