Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

by | May 26, 2019 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (29-24) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (26-25), 5/26/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET, Sunday, May 26
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Julio Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.19, 1.25)

Moneyline: Cardinals -145/Braves +135
Over/Under: 9

After splitting the first two games of this three-game series the Braves and Cardinals play a rubber match Sunday night at Busch Stadium. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened St. Louis and Flaherty at around -135 over Atlanta and Teheran, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -145 and the total to nine.

Braves vs. Cardinals Set-Up

Atlanta grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 5-2, but St. Louis rallied late to take Saturday’s game 6-3. The Cardinals trailed the Braves Saturday 3-2 into the bottom of the eighth inning but came up with four runs, three on a homer by Jedd Gyorko, to steal the win.

Saturday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Braves, who are still 8-3 over their last 11. At 29-24 overall Atlanta sits in second place in the NL East, 2.5 games back of first-place Philadelphia.

Even with Saturday’s win St. Louis is just 6-15 over its last 21 games. At 26-25 overall the Cardinals are tied for third place in the NL Central with Pittsburgh, 4.5 games back of the division-leading Cubs.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Last week the Braves took two of three from the Cards in Atlanta.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Flaherty, by our strict standards, is only 3/10 on quality starts this season, and one for his last four. Last Sunday he held Texas to two runs and four hits through six innings, but over his previous four starts he’s allowed 12 runs – 11 earned – on 15 hits and 14 walks through 22 2/3 innings.

The Cardinals are 5-5 with Flaherty this year, but only 1-3 over his last four starts.

In two career starts against Atlanta, one last year and one 12 days ago, Flaherty allowed eight runs on eight hits and seven walks through 10 2/3 innings. St. Louis split those two games.

Teheran is only 3/11 on QS this year but five outs away from being four for his last four. Tuesday he held San Francisco to one run and three hits through 5 2/3 innings, one out short of an “official” quality starts. And over his last four outings, he’s allowed just two runs and 10 hits through 22 2/3 innings.

The Braves are 6-5 with Teheran this season, 3-1 over his last four starts.

Over his last two starts against St. Louis, one last year and one 10 days ago, Teheran allowed zero runs and just four hits through 11 innings. Atlanta won both those games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Atlanta is batting .258/.335/.433 this season against right-handed pitching. This lineup has also scored at least five runs three times in its last four games.

St. Louis is batting .260/.339/.423 against righties this season. But this lineup has also been held to three runs or less five times in its last nine games.

The Bullpens

After blowing Saturday’s game, the Braves bullpen now owns a 4.51 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP.

The Cardinals bullpen owns a 4.02 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

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  • Overs are 26-25 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs are 25-23 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Overs are 13-12 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.
  • Overs are a combined 12-9 in games started by Flaherty and Teheran this season.
  • Unders are 3-2 in Braves-Cards games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Atlanta gets the check-mark on the pitching match-up here, and while St. Louis might own an edge in the bullpen the Braves are hotter with the sticks. Plus Atlanta is getting the underdog price. We like the Braves for our free MLB pick for Sunday.

Take the Atlanta Braves +135

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