Barking Dog: Padres vs. Dodgers Pick

by | Apr 25, 2021 | mlb

San Diego Padres (12-11) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (15-6)

When: 7 p.m., Sunday, April 25

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: SD +111/LAD -121 (BetNow - Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE!)

Runline: Padres +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.54 WHIP) vs. Dustin May (1-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

Fending Off the Challenge

If this series is any indication. It’s going to be a tough task for Los Angeles to hold on to its crown when these teams likely meet in the playoffs. Barring something weird happening, it’s a pretty good bet that one of these two will be the NL West champion and one will be the wild card six months from now, and given the balance of the East and Central divisions, the West champion will likely face the wild card in the NLDS.

The Dodgers struck back after two wins by San Diego, and that win could prove crucial as far as regaining both ground and confidence against San Diego. Los Angeles hasn’t seen a real challenge to its superiority since the Giants won the most recent of their World Series titles, but the Padres are making it clear that they can play with Los Angeles in both the short and long term. The more success San Diego has now against Los Angeles; the more likely their chances are of handling the Dodgers when it when it matters most.

Dude, Where Are My Runs?

Maybe Joe Musgrove pitched a little too well in his first two starts in a San Diego uniform, as he’s taken two defeats since winning in his first two trips to the hill. In his first two starts, Musgrove pitched so well that he recorded two shutouts, including the first no-hitter in Padres history after the franchise began in 1969.

But the run support has not been there as of late, as the Padres have given him one run each in both of his past two starts. That would have been enough to get the job done in his first two starts, but instead, Musgrove has been the hard-luck loser in each of his past two starts.

However, there was one positive that came out of it: Musgrove has averaged nearly ten strikeouts in his previous two games. Throughout 2021, he’s been missing bats regularly, which suggests that backing Musgrove to hit his K numbers might be a great prop to play if you want to take the San Diego offense out of the equation.

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Taking the Extra Base

One of the things that set good teams apart from great teams is how willing the team is to go the extra mile and push itself to a higher standard. In the case of the Dodgers and Padres, one thing both teams have in common is a willingness to go for the extra base. Both teams rank in the top 10 in total bases, despite San Diego ranking just 13th overall in batting average. In the Padres’ case, their willingness to push for extra bases is even more impressive because San Diego ranks just 18th in OPS.

That says that the Padres are opportunistic, but their aggression could and has run them out of an inning be-fore. In Friday’s win against Los Angeles, San Diego had a chance to tack on more runs than the six it scored, but the Padres got a bit too eager to go for the plate in the ninth and ran themselves right out of the inning. It didn’t matter because the lead was a comfortable five runs, but eventually, the Padres could find themselves either living or dying because of their aggression. Conversely, Los Angeles seems to be a bit more restrained about pushing for extra bases, but the Dodgers make sure to do it often when the time is right; their OPS ranks third in the majors.

What does that mean for a bettor? These teams love to take advantage of their chances, which sometimes pushes the total higher than you might expect.

Betting Trends

  • The Padres are 9-1 in their past ten Sunday games.
  • The Padres are 7-3 in their last ten road games.
  • The Dodgers are 40-12 in their past 52 Sunday games.
  • The Dodgers are 38-13 in their last 51 games as a favorite.
  • The under is 5-0 in the Padres’ past five games after a loss.
  • The under is 7-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last eight Sunday games.
  • The under is 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The Padres are 21-49 in the previous 70 meetings in Los Angeles.

Weather Report

Conditions are right for teams to drive the ball, as game-time temperatures will be 64 degrees with winds blowing 11 miles per hour out to right-center.

Dan’s pick

The sticking point for me is that Musgrove hasn’t gotten good run support all year. Other than the win over Arizona to start the season, the Padres have scored five runs all season for Musgrove. Fernando Tatis Jr. drove in that many runs during the past two games of this series against the Dodgers.

The key here is whether you think the over can hit because if that doesn’t happen, there’s little chance that San Diego’s getting a win, as the Dodgers will likely get the one run they’d need against Musgrove to make it work. But if the Padres’ offense gets rolling, taking San Diego and the over should pay off nicely.

The lack of run support has to end eventually. Give me San Diego.

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