Bet the Total: Guardians vs. Twins 6/23/22

by | Jun 23, 2022 | mlb

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins

Date: Thursday, June 23rd, 01:10 ET

Location: Target Field

TV: Bally Sports North

Money Line: Guardians +126 / Twins -150 (Get better lines at BetNow - They’ll give you a 100% bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM too!)

Total Line: 9.5

STARTING PITCHING

Cleveland: Zach Plesac (2-4, 4.41)
Minnesota: Devin Smeltzer (3-1, 3.52)

Guardians Projected Lineup

Andrés Giménez 2B
Ernie Clement 2B
Owen Miller 1B
Oscar Gonzalez RF
José Ramírez 3B
Austin Hedges C
Franmil Reyes RF
Myles Straw CF
Amed Rosario SS
Zach Plesac P

Twins Projected Lineup

Trevor Larnach LF
Gio Urshela 3B
Gary Sánchez C
Alex Kirilloff 1B
Max Kepler RF
Jose Miranda 1B
Carlos Correa SS
Luis Arraez 2B
Byron Buxton CF
Devin Smeltzer P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Cleveland Guardians: 36-28-0 SU / OU 32-28-4 / Run Line W/L 36-28-0
Minnesota Twins: 38-32-0 SU / OU 33-32-5 / Run Line W/L 31-39-0

The Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, June 23rd at Target Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Minnesota as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

The Cleveland Guardians head into today’s matchup after picking up a close win over the Twins by the score of 11-10. For the game, Cleveland’s pitching staff allowed 10 runs on 12 hits. The Guardians benefited from an offense that generated 11 runs on 15 hits. Cleveland picked up the win, despite getting 135.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Guardians and Twins combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. So far, Cleveland has an above .500 over-under record of 32-28-4.

In the Guardians’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. Even with this record, in these games their scoring differential is just -1. Cleveland’s offense heads into action averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.69. So far, Cleveland has won over half of their 22 series played, going 11-7-4.

The Twins are coming off a tight loss to the Guardians, dropping the game 11-10. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 15 hits, leading to 11 runs. At the plate, the Twins scored 10 times on 12 hits. Leading into the game, Minnesota was the betting favorite at -150.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 48 games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. The Twins and Guardians went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 33-32-5.

The Twins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -3. Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 5.8 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 4.50. On the season, Minnesota has won more than half of their series, going 11-7-4.

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Pitching Matchup

Cleveland will roll with Zach Plesac (2-4) as their starter. So far, Plesac has put together an ERA of 4.41. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.59 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.265. Home runs have been an issue for Plesac, as he is allowing an average of 1.34 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, he is averaging 3.67 per game, on a K rate of 15.0%. Throughout the season, Plesac has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.0 per contest.

In today’s game, Minnesota turns to starter Devin Smeltzer. For the year, he has a record of 3-1. Smeltzer gets the start with an ERA of 3.52. On average, he has lasted 5.44 innings per appearance. Smeltzer’s opponent batting average currently sits at 0.236. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Smeltzer. This year, he is allowing 1.65 HRs per 9 innings pitched. Smeltzer is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.71 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 12.0%. Throughout the season, Smeltzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.58 per contest.

Cleveland vs Minnesota History

For the season, the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins will be playing their 6th game of the season. So far, Cleveland is leading the season series, 3-2. Through 5 games, the series’ over-under record is 3-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.8 runs. Dating back to last season, Minnesota picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 8.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.58 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games at home
  • Minnesota is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Prediction

The first two games of this series between Cleveland and Minnesota have been high-scoring and tightly contested. In Thursday’s matchup, I still expect a close game but see the amount of scoring coming way down. Look for Zach Plesac and Devin Smeltzer to put together good outings on the mound. I recommend taking the under at 9.5 runs.

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