Bet the Total: Mets vs. Phillies 8/19/22

by | Aug 19, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Friday August 19th, 07:05 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: NBC 10

Money Line: Mets +105 / Phillies -125 (Bovada - Deposit $100, get $50 FREE!)

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.2)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07)

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Brett Baty 3B
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Jeff McNeil 2B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Chris Bassitt P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Darick Hall 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh LF
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Mets: 76-43-0 SU / OU 59-51-9 / Run Line W/L 65-54-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 65-52-0 SU / OU 57-55-5 / Run Line W/L 61-56-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on Friday August 19th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Mets will look to rebound from a close, 3-2 loss to the Braves. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 3 runs while allowing 6 hits. With their 6 hits, the Mets could only muster 2 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -127.0. Through 93 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 70.0%. Together, the Mets and Braves stayed below the over-under line set at 6.5 runs. However, for the season, New York still has an overall over-under record of 59-51-9.

After their 5 most recent games, the Mets have gone just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -10. On offense, New York’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, New York has won over half of their 37 series played, going 27-7-3.

In their last game, the Phillies suffered a 1 run loss to the Reds by a score of 1-0. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 6 hits. With their 5 hits, the Phillies did plate a runner. Philadelphia dropped the game despite being favored at -155.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 77 games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. With this result, the Phillies and Reds combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (57-55-5).

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of 0 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 3.0 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 18-16-3.

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Pitching Matchup

New York will roll with Chris Bassitt (10-7) as their starter. Through 22 appearances, Bassitt has an ERA of just 3.2 while averaging 6.14 innings per appearance. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.228. So far, Bassitt has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 1.0 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Chris Bassitt has a strong strikeout percentage of 24.0%, including a per-game average of 6.09. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Bassitt is averaging 2.4 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia will roll with Aaron Nola (8-9) as their starter. Currently, Nola has a strong ERA of just 3.07 while pitching an average of 6.62 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.214 against him. Nola is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.89 per 9 innings. On the season, Aaron Nola has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28%. This has led to an average of 7.17 K’s per game. Nola comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.24 free passes per outing.

New York vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 16th game of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 11-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 6-8. The average run total in these games is 6.84 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.67 runs. Dating back to last season, Philadelphia picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 8-11, with the average run total being 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Mets are 14-4 in their last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 27-8 in their last 35 during game 1 of a series.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Friday’s NL East showdown between New York and Philadelphia, the over-under line is set at 8 runs. However, look for runs to be hard to come by with Aaron Nola and Chris Bassitt on the mound. Both pitchers can rack up the strikeouts and are excellent at avoiding walks. I recommend taking the under at 8 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8 Runs.

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