Bet the Total: Yankees vs. Red Sox 7/10/22

by | Jul 10, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, July 10th, 07:08 ET

Location: Fenway Park

TV: ESPN

Money Line: Yankees -135 / Red Sox +113 (GTBets - Offers Predictem readers a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 on your first deposit! Also has one of the coolest player rewards programs in the sports betting industry!)

Total Line: 9.0

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Jameson Taillon (9-2, 3.63)
Boston: Nick Pivetta (8-6, 3.68)

Yankees Projected Lineup

Aaron Hicks CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
Gleyber Torres 2B
Giancarlo Stanton LF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
DJ LeMahieu 1B
Aaron Judge RF
Jameson Taillon P

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero 1B
Christian Vázquez C
Alex Verdugo LF
Trevor Story 2B
Jackie Bradley Jr. P
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Jarren Duran CF
Nick Pivetta P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Yankees: 61-24-0 SU / OU 39-44-2 / Run Line W/L 43-42-0
Boston Red Sox: 46-39-0 SU / OU 36-42-7 / Run Line W/L 47-38-0

The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on Sunday, July 10th at Fenway Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:08 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Red Sox (6-5), the Yankees will look to get back in the win column. In the loss, New York’s pitchers gave up 6 runs on 10 hits. The Yankees ended the game with 10 hits of their own, leading to 5 runs. Yankees suffered the loss, despite being favored at -165.0. Through 80 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 71.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 9.0 runs. Games involving the Yankees have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 39-44-2.

The Yankees are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +20. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 8.2 runs per game, compared to their season average of 5.22. So far, New York has won over half of their 28 series played, going 21-3-4.

The Red Sox will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Yankees by a score of 6-5. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 10 hits, leading to 5 runs. At the plate, the Red Sox scored 6 times on 10 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 140.0 on the moneyline, the Red Sox still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 33 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 45.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Red Sox and Yankees combined to surpass the line of 9.0 runs. Against the run total, Boston is just 36-42-7.

In their last 5 contests, the Red Sox have just 1 win, going 1-4. During this time, the team has a run differential of -17. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.69. Boston has a below .500 series record of just 12-12-3.

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Pitching Matchup

New York will roll with Jameson Taillon (9-2) as their starter. To date, Taillon has an ERA of 3.63 while lasting an average of 5.57 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.261. This season, Taillon has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 1.01 per 9 innings. On the season, Jameson Taillon has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.62 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Taillon has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.11 per contest.

The Boston Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta to the mound with an overall record of 8-6. To date, Pivetta has an ERA of 3.68 while lasting an average of 5.89 innings per appearance. Through 17 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.221. Pivetta is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.9 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Nick Pivetta has a strong K% of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 5.59. Pivetta comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.05 free passes per outing.

New York vs Boston History

For the season, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will be playing their 7th game of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 4-2. Through 6 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.85 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.17 runs. Dating back to last season, Boston picked up 11 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 6-13, with the average run total being 7.85 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.05 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • NY Yankees is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Boston
  • NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
  • Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
  • Boston is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing NY Yankees

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Prediction

So far, this series between Boston and New York has featured a ton of scoring, with every game reaching at least a combined 11 runs. On Sunday, I expect that trend to continue, as Jameson Taillon has struggled in his past 3 outings, and Nick Pivetta gave up 7 earned runs in his last appearance. I recommend the over at 9 runs.

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