Blue Jay vs. Pirates Betting Prediction

by | Last updated May 6, 2023 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Date: Saturday, May 6th, 6:35 ET
Location: PNC Park
TV: SNPT
Money Line: Blue Jays -138/Pirates +117
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Blue Jays on Saturday, May 6th at PNC Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
TOR -138 -1.5 O 9 (-107)
PIT +117 +1.5 U 9 (-114)

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
George Springer 1 CF
Bo Bichette 2 SS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3 1B
Matt Chapman 4 3B
Daulton Varsho 5 RF
Alejandro Kirk 6 C
Whit Merrifield 7 2B
Danny Jansen 8 C
Kevin Kiermaier 9 CF
José Berríos SP


Batting Order Position
Ke’Bryan Hayes 1 3B
Bryan Reynolds 2 CF
Andrew McCutchen 3 LF
Carlos Santana 4 1B
Jack Suwinski 5 RF
Connor Joe 6 LF
Rodolfo Castro 7 2B
Ji Hwan Bae 8 2B
Austin Hedges 9 C
Johan Oviedo SP


Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Toronto Blue Jays: 19-14 SU / OU 14-17 / Runline 16-17
Pittsburgh Pirates: 20-13 SU / OU 16-17 / Runline 20-13

So far this season, the Blue Jays have an overall record of 19-14, putting them 4th in the AL East. Currently, they are eight games out in the division. Across their last ten games, they are an even 5-5. On the road, they have gone 10-11 and 9-3 at home. The team’s series record is 7-3.

  • The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 48.5% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.2
  • The Blue Jays have been favored in 72.7% of their games and have runline records of 6-6 and 10-11 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Blue Jays have an over/under record of just 14-17.

Against the Blue Jays, the Pirates are looking to shake a five two game losing streak. Yet, their record of 20-13 is stil good for 1st in the NL Central. At home, Pittsburgh has gone 9-5 and 11-8 on the road. So far, their overall series record is 6-3.

  • The Pirates have covered the runline in 60.6% of their games and have an average run margin of 1.0
  • The Pirates have been favored in 24.2% of their games and have runline records of 7-7 and 13-6 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Pirates have an over/under record of just 16-17.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
José Berríos 6 6 34 2-3 5.29 1.29 3

Starter José Berríos comes in with an overall record of 2-3 for the Blue Jays. Having made six appearances, his ERA is 5.29 and he has a K/9 figure of 1.0. Additionally, he has a FIP of 3.20 and an OBP of .317.

In his last appearance, José Berríos lasted 5 1/3 innings in the Blue Jays’ 6-5 loss to the Red Sox. Individually, Berríos finished with a no-decision while giving up five runs on 11 hits.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Johan Oviedo 6 6 32 2-2 4.78 1.47 3

The Pirates will turn to starter Johan Oviedo who has an overall record of 2-2. Through six appearances his ERA stands at 4.78 with a K/9 figure of 0.9. So far, he has put together of FIP of 3.82 to go along with an OBP of .320.

Johan Oviedo will look to bounce back from a short outing against the Nationals. In the Pirates’ 7-2 loss, Oviedo gave up seven runs in 2 1/3 innings of work.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Offense Outlook

This season, Toronto is ranked 11th in the league in runs scored at 4.7 runs per contest. So far, they are near the middle of the pack in home runs, hitting a combined 37 long balls. The team’s current batting average of .254 is 11th in the league. On the road, they are 10th in batting average compared to 8th at home.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters On The Road

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .360 7 .651 .452
Bo Bichette .326 4 .517 .387
Matt Chapman .338 4 .612 .436
Daulton Varsho .273 4 .506 .360
Whit Merrifield .279 0 .361 .312

Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Daulton Varsho .400 7 2 2 .817
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .370 8 3 2 .720
Bo Bichette .330 8 4 1 .540
Whit Merrifield .250 4 1 0 .350
Kevin Kiermaier .208 3 5 0 .292

This season, Pittsburgh is ranked 10th in the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Although they are not at the top of the league in home runs, they have hit 35 long balls so far. The team’s batting average stands at .252, which ranks 13th in the league. On the road, their batting average is 8th compared to 22nd at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Pirates 33 4.8 (10th) 35 (17th) .252 (13th) .333 (8th) .333 (8th)

Pittsburgh Pirates Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Bryan Reynolds .383 7 1 0 .600
Carlos Santana .167 3 0 0 .267
Ji Hwan Bae .183 3 1 0 .183
Connor Joe .200 4 1 0 .450
Andrew McCutchen .062 1 1 1 .250

Free MLB Pick

After starting the season out like gangbusters, the Pirates bats have gone silent. Their offense has scored a total of SIX runs in their last five games! That’s 1.2/runs per game. They’ll face Jose Berrios who got blasted in his last start but had a couple of really good outings prior to that. Berrios prefers to pitch in nice weather (he’s Puerto Rican, comes from a warm climate) and he’ll get exactly just that as it’s supposed to be 75 degrees at PNC Park Saturday.

Toronto has a very misleading recent record, losers of five out of their last six games, however, they’re scoring a fair amount of runs. They’ll get Johan Oviedo, who looked good early in April, but has gotten bombed over his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in his last 7.2 innings. I’m forecasting the Jays to score twice as many runs as Pittsburgh, however many that may be. Good luck! Don’t forget to check out Ken Strong’s Kentucky Derby Picks for today’s big race!

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