Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Moneyline Bet 8/25/22

by | Aug 25, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Thursday August 25th, 07:10 ET

Location: Fenway Park

TV: SNET

Money Line: Blue Jays -168 / Red Sox +140 (BetOnline - Check out their 500K NFL Handicapping Contest!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Toronto: Kevin Gausman (9-9, 2.99)
Boston: Kutter Crawford (3-5, 5.14)

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Matt Chapman 3B
Santiago Espinal 2B
Teoscar Hernández RF
Bo Bichette SS
Jackie Bradley Jr. CF
Alejandro Kirk C
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
George Springer CF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
Kevin Gausman P

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Enrique Hernández SS
Franchy Cordero CF
J.D. Martinez LF
Alex Verdugo LF
Christian Arroyo 2B
Rafael Devers 3B
Kevin Plawecki C
Xander Bogaerts SS
Tommy Pham LF
Kutter Crawford P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Toronto Blue Jays: 67-55-0 SU / OU 62-59-1 / Run Line W/L 53-69-0
Boston Red Sox: 60-64-0 SU / OU 56-60-8 / Run Line W/L 62-62-0

The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday August 25th at Fenway Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-168), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In the Toronto Blue Jays’ last game, they picked up a 3-2 win over Boston. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Boston to 2 runs on 9 hits. On offense, Toronto’s lineup put together a total of 10 hits, leading to 3 runs. In the matchup, Toronto was favored at -155.0 on the moneyline. Through 100 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 56.9%. Together, the Blue Jays and Boston stayed below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. Toronto games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 62-59-1.

The Blue Jays are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +12. Overall, Toronto is averaging 4.72 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.72. So far, Toronto has won over half of their 39 series played, going 19-14-6.

The Red Sox will look to bounce back from a tight 3-2 loss to the Blue Jays. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Blue Jays to 3 runs and 10 hits. With their 9 hits, the Red Sox could only plate 2 runners. Leading into Boston’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. In their 56 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 39.0%. With this result, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. Now, Boston had an over-under record of 56-60-8.

In their last 5 contests, the Red Sox have just 1 win, going 1-4. During this time, the team has a run differential of -13. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.4 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.46. Boston has a below .500 series record of just 16-19-5.

Pitching Matchup

Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Blue Jays, with an overall record of 9-9. Through 23 appearances, Gausman has an ERA of just 2.99 while averaging 5.61 innings per appearance. Across his previous starts, opposing teams have put together a batting average of 0.271. So far, Gausman has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.49 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Kevin Gausman has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.0%, including a per-game average of 6.48. Command has been a problem for Gausman, as he is giving up 1.53 walks per outing.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, with an overall record of 3-5. To date, Crawford has an ERA of 5.14 while lasting an average of 3.58 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.256. Home runs have been an issue for Crawford, as he is allowing an average of 1.45 per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Kutter Crawford has a strong K% of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 3.53. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.03 walks per outing.

Toronto vs Boston History

For the season, the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will be playing their 16th game of the season. Toronto has the lead in the series at 12-3. Through 15 games, the series over-under record is 7-8, with the average run total sitting at 10.05 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.2 runs. Dating back to last season, Boston picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Blue Jays and Red Sox averaged 10.05 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.26 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
  • Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games at home
  • Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s AL East showdown between Toronto and Boston, the Blue Jays are the strong favorite on the moneyline. However, I recommend taking the Red Sox to pull off the upset, as the advanced analytics show that this is not as big of a pitching mismatch as one would think. This year, Jose Berrios is in just the 10th percentile among pitchers in hard-hit percentage. I like Boston on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox Moneyline.

MLB Betting Guide

New to betting on baseball? We've got you covered! Our comprehensive how to bet on baseball article explains all the different types of wagers offered at the sportsbooks including money lines, over/unders, run lines, parlays and more! Also get tips and strategies to increase your odds of beating the bookies!