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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 9/20/18 Pick

by | Sep 20, 2018 | mlb

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 9/20/18

Time: 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, the Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (Bos) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (NY)
TV: MLB, NESN, YES
Moneyline: Red Sox +150 / Yankees -160
Over/Under: 8.5

The Red Sox could clinch the AL East in Yankee Stadium Thursday night, but the Pinstripes don’t want to see that. How are we playing Thursday’s series finale with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -165 for this game, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. The early betting action then dipped that line slightly, to about -160.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +130 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

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Set-Up

New York has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 3-2 Tuesday and 10-1 Wednesday.

So Boston is 2-3 over its last five games, as it quests for the clinch.

Even with these last two wins, the Yankees are only 4-5 over their last nine games.

At 103-49 overall the Sox lead the AL East by 9.5 games over 93-58 New York, with time running out. So barring a miracle Boston will own home-field advantages for every playoff series its plays this Fall.

The Yankees also lead the American League wild-card race, 2.5 games clear of second-place Oakland and 5.5 games ahead of third-place Tampa Bay.

The Sox lead the season series with the Yanks eight games to seven.

Thursday’s Starters

Tanaka (12-5, 3.47), by our strict standards, is 14/25 on quality starts this season and three for his last three. Last Friday he tossed six innings of four-hit, shutout ball against Toronto, and over his previous three starts he’s allowed just one run and 14 hits through 21 innings. On the season New York is 16-9 with Tanaka, 3-0 over his last three outings.

In three starts this season against Boston, though, Tanaka allowed 11 runs and 21 hits through 15 innings. Thanks to great run support the Yankees won two of those games.

Lefty Rodriguez (12-4, 3.53) is only 7/22 on quality starts this year, but a short leash plays a part in that figure. He’s also one out away from being two for three since coming back from a stint on the DL. Nineteen days ago he held the White Sox to one run through 5 2/3 innings, with 12 strikeouts; twelve days ago he got clipped for five runs in less than four innings against Houston, but last Friday he held Toronto to one run through six frames. On the season the Red Sox are a sparkling 18-4 with Rodriguez, 5-1 over his previous six outings.

Over two starts this year against New York Rodriguez allowed five runs and eight hits through 11 innings. Boston split those two games.

We might give Tanaka our handicapping check-mark for this pitching match-up, but he’s been bad against the Sox this year. Instead, we’re thinking this is more of a wash.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Boston owns a .271/.339/.465 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season. However, this lineup has only produced a total of 17 runs over its last seven games.

New York owns a .247/.327/.462 split against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also produced 46 runs over its last eight games.

Sox bats own the better split numbers, but Yanks bats are better as of late. We’ll call this department a push, too.

The Bullpens

The Sox pen owns a 3.60 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season.

The Yanks bullpen owns a 3.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

We’ll give New York a short check-mark in the bullpen comparison.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 40-34 in games played at Yankee Stadium this year, which are averaging 9.8 total runs per.
  • Unders are 5-1-1 in Boston’s last seven games.
  • Overs are 5-3 in New York’s last eight games.
  • Unders are 14-8 with Rodriguez this season.
  • Overs are 7-6-2 in Yanks-Sox games this season.

Free MLB Picks

Boston is great with Rodriguez this year, and it’s walloped Tanaka, too. Plus the Sox are getting an attractive underdog price. We’re betting Boston with our free MLB pick for Thursday and guys make sure that you are betting with a sportsbook that offer the best lines on baseball, football and basketball.