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Pick: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Game 3

by | Oct 8, 2018 | mlb

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 10/8/18

Time: 7:35 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (Bos) vs. Luis Severino (NY)
TV: TBS
Moneyline: Red Sox +170/Yankees -180
Over/Under: 8.5

The Yanks and Sox split the first two games of this ALDS in Boston and now move on to New York for Games 3 and 4. How are we playing Monday night’s contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Playoff Betting Line

Monday’s MLB playoff betting odds opened the Yankees at around -175 for this Game 3, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. The early betting action then bumped that line about a nickel, to around -180.

New York could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

The Red Sox took the opener of this series Friday night 5-4, but the Yankees took Game 2 Saturday 6-2. Boston won as a -165 favorite Friday, but New York won as a -115 favorite Saturday.

Also, Game 1 of this series played over a total of 7.5 runs, while Game 2 played under a total of nine, as neither team scored against the others’ bullpen over the last two innings.

With Saturday’s loss, Boston is 2-4 over its last six games, 6-8 over its last 14.

The Red Sox took the regular-season series from the Yanks 10 games to nine.

Monday’s Game 3 Starters

Severino (19-8, 3.32), by our strict standards, is 16/33 on quality starts this season, and while only 1 for his last four a short leash played a part. Last Tuesday he held Oakland scoreless on two hits through four innings of that Yankees wild-card victory, and over his previous four starts, he’s held opponents to four runs and 16 hits through 21 2/3 innings, with 25 strikeouts.

On the season New York is a sparkling 25-8 with Severino, 3-0 over his last three outings.

In five starts this season against Boston Severino allowed 12 earned runs and 29 hits through 30 1/3 innings, with 31 strikeouts. The Yanks went 3-2 those games.

Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81) is 8/21 on quality starts this year, and while he’s only 1 for his last eight a short leash again played a part. Nine days ago he started and tossed two scoreless innings against these Yankees, with four strikeouts, and over his last five appearances, including one in relief, he’s allowed three ER and 12 hits through 20 innings.

On the season Boston is 5-6 with Eovaldi, while Tampa went 3-7 with him, but that’s not all his fault.

In four starts this year against New York, one while with the Rays and three with the Sox, Eovaldi allowed five ER and 14 hits through 23 1/3 innings. Boston went 1-2 in its three games against the Yanks with Eovaldi.

For our handicapping purposes here we’re giving New York and Severino half an edge in this pitching match-up.

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Monday’s Batting Splits

Boston posted a .275/.344/.473 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this year.

New York posted a .250/.329/.445 split against righties this season.

We’ll give the Red Sox the edge in the splits with the sticks for Game 3.

The Bullpens

The Boston bullpen posted a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season while going 46/66 on save opps. This unit has thrown 11 innings in this series, allowing five runs on 10 hits.

The Yankees pen put up a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season while going 49/67 on save opportunities. This unit has thrown 10 innings in this series, allowing just one run on six hits.

We’re giving New York the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens here.

Totals Report

  • Overs played 44-35 at Yankee Stadium this season, as Pinstripes home games averaged 9.9 total runs per.
  • Overs are 8-1 in New York’s last nine games.
  • Overs are 10-2-1 in Boston’s last 13 games.
  • Overs are 12-7-2 in Yanks-Sox games this year.

Free MLB Playoff Picks

We’re giving New York half a star in total on our main handicapping factors here, but that is not enough to justify a line as large as this one. So the betting value here sides with the Sox. We’re betting Boston at the underdog price Monday night at Intertops and guys if you don’t have an account there yet, get one today and take advantage of their best bonus offer!.