Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Pick 3/30/19

by | Mar 30, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

When: Saturday, March 30, 2019 – 9:10 PM ET

Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle.

TV: FSN

Moneyline: BOS-155 / SEA+145 (MyBookie)

Total: O/U 8

Boston and Seattle have split the first two games of their four-game series out West, and play Game 3 Saturday night at T-Mobile Park (9:10 pm ET, NESN, ROOT Northwest). Who do we like for our free MLB pick here?

Saturday’s Line

MLB betting odds opened Boston and Eduardo Rodriguez at around -140 over Seattle and Mike Leake, with an over/under of eight runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.

The Red Sox could also be found getting around +110 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Red Sox-Mariners Betting Preview

Seattle (3-1) took the opener of this series Thursday night 12-4, but Boston (1-1) rallied late to take Friday’s game 7-6. The Mariners led early Friday 6-1, but the Red Sox scored single runs in the fifth, sixth and eighth innings, then got a pinch-hit, three-run bomb from Mitch Moreland in the top of the ninth and hung on for the W.

Boston cashed as a -145 favorite, and the game played over a total of eight runs.

The Sox took the season series from the M’s last year four games to three.

Saturday’s Pitching Match-Up

These two starters squared off twice last season; Boston won the first match-up 9-3 while Seattle won the second 7-2.

Leake (10-10, 4.36 last year), by our strict standards, finished 15/31 on quality starts last season. The Mariners finished a robust 20-11 with Leake last year, with the overs going 17-14.

In two starts last year against the Red Sox Leake allowed five runs on 11 hits through 14 innings. As mentioned above the teams split those two games, with the totals also splitting.

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Lefty Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82 last year) only finished 7/23 on quality starts last year, but some of that was due to a short leash. Eight times last year Rodriguez came within three outs of a QS but got pulled. Boston went a sparkling 19-4 with E-Rod previous year, with the unders going 14-9.

In two starts last year against Seattle Rodriguez allowed seven runs – six earned – on 13 hits through 10 innings, with 11 strikeouts.

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Saturday’s Stick Splits

Boston hit .275/.344/.473 against right-handed pitching last season, which ranked No. 1 in the Majors in that split.

Seattle hit .258/.324/.400 against left-handed pitching last season, but this is a different lineup now. The Mariners have already scored 32 runs through their four games of this season, but we wonder how long this unit can keep that pace.

Ultimately we give the Red Sox the edge in splits with the sticks for Saturday.

The Bullpens

Boston’s bullpen posted a 3.72 ERA last year with a 1.29 WHIP.

Seattle’s pen posted a 3.76 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP last year.

Both these teams are breaking in new closers. The Mariners’ Hunter Strickland saved both games last week against Oakland in Japan, but he gave up Moreland’s three-run homer Friday night. Meanwhile, new Sox closer Matt Barnes, in his first save chance Friday, tossed a perfect ninth with two whiffs to preserve the victory.

We do not have a good read on these two bullpens at the moment, so for handicapping purposes, we’re calling this comparison a push.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 2-0 in this series.
  • The overs are 3-1 in Mariners games this season.
  • The unders played 44-37 at T-Mobile Park (Safeco Field) last season.
  • The unders played 4-3 in Sox-Mariners games last season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re very dubious as to whether Seattle can continue to score runs at its current pace. Also, while we might give Leake a short edge in the pitching match-up, we certainly like the Boston lineup. We’re going with the Red Sox here, and in chasing a better price, we’ll give the run and a half against the run line.

Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 +105