Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Pick

by | Jun 18, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (40-34) vs. Minnesota Twins (47-24), 6/18/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET Tuesday, June 18
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Listed Pitchers: David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs. Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04, 1.21)
TV: NESN, FS North

Moneyline: Red Sox -115/Twins +105 (Mybookie)
Over/Under: 9.5

The Red Sox ride a season-high six-game winning streak into the middle game of a three-game series with the AL Central-leading Twins in Minneapolis Tuesday night. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Minnesota and Pineda at around -120 over Boston and Price, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then flipped the Red Sox into -115 favorites.

Red Sox vs. Twins Set-Up

Boston grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 2-0, cashing in as a +135 underdog on the MLB betting line. The Sox scored a run in the top of the first inning and one in the top of the ninth, and yet that was all they would need, as starter Rick Porcello and two relievers put a blanking on the Twinkies.

Also, much to our dismay, Monday’s game never came close to approaching its over/under of 10.5 runs.

With Monday’s victory Boston is now a season-high six games over .500. At 40-34 overall the Red Sox trail the division-leading Yankees by 5.5 games in the AL East, but they’re also tied with Texas for the second American League wild-card spot.

Betting the 2019 World Series Champion?

With Monday’s loss the Twins are 3-3 over their last six games. At 47-24 overall Minnesota leads the AL Central by 10 games over Cleveland, but it’s also now one game behind Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

This series is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Last year Boston took the season series from Minnesota four games to three.

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Tuesday’s Starting Arms

Pineda, by our stringent standards, is only 2/13 on quality starts this season, but at least he’s been consistent as of late, giving up exactly three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Last Thursday he held Seattle to one run and two hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 10-5 Twins win, and over his last four starts he’s allowed 10 runs and 17 hits through 22 2/3 innings.

Minnesota is 7-6 with Pineda this season, 4-1 over his last five starts, thanks mainly to some nice run support.

This will be Pineda’s first start against the Red Sox since 2017, when as a Yankee he allowed just one unearned run and four hits through seven frames of a 9-1 New York victory.

Lefty Price is 5/12 on quality starts this season, and three for his last four. Last Thursday he got bombed by Texas for six runs through just 1 1/3 innings of a game Boston eventually won 7-6. But over his three starts previous to that he allowed just three runs and 14 hits through 18 1/3 innings.

The Red Sox are 6-6 with Price this year, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In his one start last year against Minnesota Price allowed three runs and seven hits, including a couple of dingers, through six innings of a 4-1 Boston loss.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

Boston is batting .269/.349/.459 against right-handed pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank right near the tops in the Majors in this split.

Minnesota is batting .300/.365/.517 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks this unit No. 1 in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

  • The Red Sox bullpen owns a 3.97 ERA this season and a 1.29 WHIP.
  • The Twins pen owns a 4.71 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 40-31 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 37-29 in Twins games this season.
  • Unders are 19-14 in games played at Target Field this season.
  • Overs are 7-5 with Pineda this season.
  • Unders are 6-5 with Price this season.
  • Unders finished 4-3 in Red Sox-Twins games last season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ve been expecting Boston to heat up, after a slow start to this season; perhaps it’s happening now. We’ve also been expecting Minnesota to fall back toward reality, after such a great start to this season; perhaps that’s also in the happening. We’re riding the Red Sox for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.