Boston Red Sox vs. NY Yankees Pick 7/18/21

by | Jul 18, 2021 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (56-36) vs. New York Yankees (46-44)

When: 7:10 p.m., Sunday, July 18

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Moneyline: BOS -105/NYY -115 (Find the best sportsbook bonus >>>)

Runline: Red Sox -1.5/Yankees +1.5

Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (7-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs. Jameson Taillon (4-4, 4.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)

Short Night of Work

The weather certainly worked in the Yankees’ favor on Saturday night, as they managed to pick up a win despite only putting in six innings worth of work on a wet evening across the East Coast. New York got the job done when it mattered most, scoring in the fifth and sixth innings to take the lead and allow the game to go to them as an official victory. Why they didn’t decide to just suspend the game until Sunday is beyond me, but that’s not my call to make.

With only a six-inning day having been played on Saturday, the Yankees are in prime position to rotate their pitchers to their heart’s content in this game. New York didn’t waste the bullpen on Saturday and doesn’t play on Monday, so the Yankees can go as deep into their bullpen as they feel they need in order to keep Boston off-balance. That’s a luxury the Red Sox do not have because they travel to Toronto to start a series on Monday, meaning they’ve got to manage the game differently than New York does. While the Yankees can throw caution to the wind, knowing a day off is coming, Boston’s got the challenge of trying to get a win here while making sure that they’re still well set up for their next opponent.

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Blowing the Opportunity

At this point, the Yankees need every advantage that they can get when facing Boston because they still have not figured out what they need to do to beat the Red Sox. The Red Sox have won all seven matchups between the teams that went nine innings, with the only exception coming because Gerrit Cole gave his team a chance to win, and the Yankees managed to cash in with what turned out to be the last frame of the game.

When the teams have actually been able to play nine innings, Boston has not only won all seven meetings, but the Red Sox have covered a -1.5 runline in all of them. Part of that is because the Red Sox can hit and the Yankees cannot. Boston has the weaker pitching staff, but because New York has made itself so dependent on home runs and the Red Sox are willing to manufacture runs, Boston hits 22 points higher than New York and has scored 96 more runs than the previously-potent Yankees.

The Road Warrior

There’s nothing really special about the way that Martin Perez pitches; his goal is merely to keep enough runs off the board that he can let his offense generate enough runs to make up for any mistakes he might have made. And for this Red Sox squad, it’s actually working out very well. With one more good outing, Perez can pull his ERA for the year under 4, which would be the first time he’s gone under that number since 2013 when he put up a respectable 3.62 and went 10-6 for the Rangers.

In Boston, his ERA improved to 4.50 in the COVID-addled season, but he’s gotten even better this season, consistently keeping hitters off balance and keeping the Sox in games. On the road, he’s been at his best, as Boston has won his past four starts away from home. Since May 10, the Red Sox haven’t lost a game that Perez pitched away from Fenway Park, and the pitcher has picked up the win in every appearance.

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox are 22-8 in their past 30 against the AL East.
  • The Red Sox are 7-3 in their past ten games following a loss.
  • The Yankees are 2-6 in their past eight Sunday games.
  • The Yankees are 1-4 in their past five home games.
  • The under is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s past six road games.
  • The under is 6-2-1 in the Red Sox’s past nine games overall.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ past six overall.
  • The Red Sox have won eight of nine from the Yankees.
  • The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in New York.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a warm night in the Bronx, with temperatures at 80 degrees and winds blowing out to right-center at 10 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

I don’t think the Yankees have really figured things out. I think Saturday was a mirage brought on by the storms, and things will return to form in this matchup. New York just doesn’t have the pitching to stand up to Boston, even with the extra day off coming. I’m taking the Red Sox here.