Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick 5/7/23
Date: Sunday, May 7th, 1:35 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: NSPPH
Money Line: Red Sox +106/Phillies -125
Total Line: 9.5
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Red Sox on Sunday, May 7th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | +106 | +1.5 | O 9.5 (-101) |
| PHI | -125 | -1.5 | U 9.5 (-120) |
Red Sox vs. Phillies Projected Lineup
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1 | LF |
| Masataka Yoshida | 2 | LF |
| Justin Turner | 3 | 3B |
| Rafael Devers | 4 | 3B |
| Jarren Duran | 5 | CF |
| Triston Casas | 6 | 1B |
| Enmanuel Valdez | 7 | 3B |
| Enrique Hernández | 8 | CF |
| Connor Wong | 9 | C |
| Tanner Houck | – | SP |
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 1 | LF |
| Trea Turner | 2 | SS |
| Bryce Harper | 3 | RF |
| Nick Castellanos | 4 | RF |
| Bryson Stott | 5 | 2B |
| Alec Bohm | 6 | 3B |
| J.T. Realmuto | 7 | C |
| Brandon Marsh | 8 | CF |
| Edmundo Sosa | 9 | SS |
| Taijuan Walker | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Boston Red Sox: 21-14 SU / OU 24-10 / Runline 21-14
On a record of 21-14, the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East. Currently, they are 6.5 games out of the division lead. Against the Phillies, they will be seeking their 9th straight win. On the road, they have a record of 8-7 while going 13-7 at home. Boston’s overall series record is 7-3.
- The Red Sox have covered the runline in seven straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.9.
- The Red Sox have been favored in 40.0% of their games and have runline records of 11-9 and 10-5 at home and on the road, respectively
- The over has hit in 71% of the Red Sox’s 35 games at 24-10.
Heading into their game vs. the Red Sox, the Phillies have a record of 15-19 and have dropped six straight games. In the NL East, they are in 4th place and have an overall series record of 5-4. At home, they have gone 8-7 and 7-12 on the road.
- The Phillies have five straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -1.0.
- The Phillies have been favored in 52.9% of their games and have runline records of 5-10 and 9-10 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Phillies have an over/under record of just 16-17.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 6 | 6 | 32 | 3-1 | 5.34 | 1.38 | 4 |
With an overall record of 3-1, the Red Sox will give Tanner Houck the start. His ERA stands at 5.34 with a K/9 figure of 0.9 after making six appearances. Additionally, he has a FIP of 4.39 and an OBP of .319.
Tanner Houck’s last appearance on the mound resulted in a no-decision despite a strong outing. He pitched six innings, giving up only six runs on six hits against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox went on to win the game with a score of 7-6.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 6 | 6 | 28 | 2-2 | 6.91 | 1.60 | 7 |
Starter Taijuan Walker comes in with an overall record of 2-2 for the Phillies. Having made six appearances, his ERA is 6.91 and he has a K/9 figure of 1.0. Additionally, he has a FIP of 6.29 and an OBP of .357.
Having allowed eight runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Dodgers, Taijuan Walker is coming off a game that resulted in a loss for the Phillies.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Offense Outlook
With a total of 46 home runs hit so far, the Red Sox have established themselves as one of the leading home run hitting teams in baseball (5th). They are currently averaging 5.9 runs per game overall, with a collective batting average of .273. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .401 compared to .482 at home.
Boston Red Sox Top Hitters On The Road
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | .385 | 3 | .667 | .482 |
| Alex Verdugo | .255 | 1 | .400 | .316 |
| Rafael Devers | .241 | 6 | .630 | .373 |
| Justin Turner | .218 | 1 | .327 | .303 |
| Jarren Duran | .333 | 1 | .500 | .381 |
Boston Red Sox Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | .479 | 8 | 6 | 2 | .929 |
| Rafael Devers | .347 | 8 | 3 | 1 | .547 |
| Justin Turner | .300 | 7 | 5 | 0 | .390 |
| Jarren Duran | .270 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .420 |
| Raimel Tapia | .258 | 4 | 5 | 0 | .321 |
The Phillies have played 34 games and currently hold the 16th spot in the league with an average of 4.2 runs per game. With 37 home runs, Philadelphia is 14th in the league. The team’s batting average, including .250 on the road and .262 at home, is .265.
Philadelphia Phillies Team Hitting Stats
| Team | Games | Runs | HR | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 34 | 4.2 (16th) | 37 (14th) | .265 (5th) | .321 (15th) | .321 (15th) |
Philadelphia Phillies Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | .277 | 6 | 4 | 2 | .677 |
| Bryce Harper | .330 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .517 |
| Nick Castellanos | .250 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .350 |
| Alec Bohm | .267 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .267 |
| J.T. Realmuto | .208 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .542 |
Free MLB Pick
The Red Sox are currently on an eight-game winning streak, during which they have been absolutely dominant at the plate, scoring five or more runs in every game. Given their current form, it’s hard to bet against them. The team will be starting Tanner Houck, who has an ERA of 5.34. However, the Red Sox have won five out of the six games he has started this season, and Houck has a more respectable 4.50 ERA in day games.
On the other side, the Phillies are sending out Taijuan Walker, who has struggled in his last two starts, giving up a combined 13 runs in just 7 1/3 innings pitched. Walker was also roughed up in his last outing against the Red Sox, which came last season at Fenway Park. He was pulled after just two innings, having allowed six earned runs.
Considering the Red Sox’s impressive form at the plate and Houck’s solid W/L record in day games, I believe that taking the Red Sox at +105 represents a great betting opportunity.
