Braves vs. Marlins Pick

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins
Date: Saturday August 13th, 01:10 ET
Location: LoanDepot park
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Braves -120 / Marlins 100
Total Line: 7.0


Atlanta: Kyle Muller (0-1, 23.63)
Miami: Jesús Luzardo (3-4, 3.29)

Braves Projected Lineup

Marcell Ozuna LF
Michael Harris II CF
William Contreras C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Robbie Grossman RF
Austin Riley 3B
Vaughn Grissom 2B
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Kyler Muller P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Charles LeBlanc 3B
Jacob Stallings C
J.J. Bleday RF
Bryan De La Cruz CF
Miguel Rojas SS
Peyton Burdick CF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Joey Wendle 2B
Garrett Cooper 1B
Jesús Luzardo P


Atlanta Braves: 67-46-0 SU / OU 58-49-6 / Run Line W/L 57-56-0
Miami Marlins: 50-62-0 SU / OU 49-57-6 / Run Line W/L 52-60-0

The Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, August 13th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Atlanta Braves will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 4-3 win over the Marlins. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 3 runs on 12 hits. The Braves lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 8 hits, leading to 4 runs. Heading into their last game, Atlanta was the betting favorite at -140.0. Through 94 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 67.0%. The Braves and Marlins played to an even match of the over-under line set at 7.0 runs. Currently, Atlanta’s over-under record sits at 58-49-6.

The Braves are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. However, even with an above .500 record (last 5) their run differential sits at just 0 (last 5). Atlanta’s offense heads into action averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.81. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 36 series played, going 18-12-6.

The Marlins will look to bounce back from a tight 4-3 loss to the Braves. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits. At the plate, the Marlins only came through for 3 runs on 12 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Miami came into the game as the underdog, getting 120.0. In their 55 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 31.0%. Combined, the Marlins and the Braves matched the over-under total of 7.0. This result drops Miami’s over-under record down to 49-57-6.

In their last 5 contests, the Marlins have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Even though Miami has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+1). The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.6 runs over their last 5 game. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 10-22-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send Kyle Muller to the mound for his 2nd start of the season. In his first outing, Muller was roughed up for 7 runs in just 2 1/3 innings. A major problem for him in the outing was his inability to control his pitches, issuing 6 walks.

Miami will roll with Jesús Luzardo (3-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Luzardo has lasted an average of 5.12 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.29. So far, batters are hitting just 0.152 against him. Luzardo is allowing home runs at a rate of 0.88 per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 6.5 per game, on a K rate of 32.0%. Luzardo has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 3.73 per contest.

Atlanta vs Miami History

For the season, the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins will be playing their 11th game of the season. So far, Atlanta is leading the season series, 6-4. Through 10 games, the series over-under record is 5-3, with the average run total sitting at 9.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.9 runs. Going back to last year, Atlanta won the season series, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-6, with the average run total being 9.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.58 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta’s last 14 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami’s last 10 games
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s National League East matchup between Miami and Atlanta, the Braves are the slight favorite on the moneyline. Even though Kyle Muller will almost certainly perform better than his last time out, it appears that walks might be an issue for the young pitcher. I recommend taking Miami on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Marlins Moneyline

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