Braves vs. Phillies Best Bet 9/23/22

by | Sep 23, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Friday September 23rd, 07:05 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: Bally Sports South

Money Line: Braves 113 / Phillies -135 (BAS - Stop wasting money! Start betting on games at discounted odds!) 

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Atlanta: Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.75)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (9-12, 3.38)

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C
Vaughn Grissom 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Michael Harris II CF
Austin Riley 3B
Robbie Grossman RF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Jake Odorizzi P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Nick Maton RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott SS
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Atlanta Braves: 93-57-0 SU / OU 73-69-8 / Run Line W/L 77-73-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 82-67-0 SU / OU 75-69-5 / Run Line W/L 74-75-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on Friday, September 23rd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Braves will look to rebound from a close, 1-0 loss to Philadelphia. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held Philadelphia to just 1 run on 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 0 runs on 6 hits. Braves suffered the loss, despite being favored at -140.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 128 of their games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Together, the Braves and Philadelphia stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. However, for the season, Atlanta still has an overall over-under record of 73-69-8.

In the Braves’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +5. Atlanta has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.87. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 48 series played, going 26-16-6.

In their last game, the Phillies picked up a close win over the Braves by a score of 1-0. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Braves to 0 runs and 6 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 1 run on 6 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 130.0 on the moneyline, the Phillies still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 48 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 46.0%. Combined, the Phillies and Braves’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Even still, Philadelphia games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 75-69-5.

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -9. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.66. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 24-20-4.

Pitching Matchup

Jake Odorizzi gets the start for the Braves, with an overall record of 4-3. So far, Odorizzi has put together an ERA of 3.75. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.0 innings. So far, Odorizzi has a batting average allowed of 0.23. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Odorizzi, as he is allowing just 0.75 per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 3.83 per game, on a K rate of 19.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.55 walks per contest.

In today’s game, Philadelphia turns to starter Aaron Nola. For the year, he has a record of 9-12. Nola gets the start with an ERA of 3.38. On average, he has lasted 6.42 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.223 against Nola. Nola is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.87 per 9 innings. On the season, Aaron Nola has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. This has led to an average of 7.24 K’s per game. Nola comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.26 free passes per outing.

Atlanta vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 17th meeting of the season. So far, Atlanta is leading the season series, 9-7. Through 16 games, the series over-under record is 9-6, with the average run total sitting at 8.37 runs per game. The average scoring margin in these meetings is 3.81 runs. Going back to last year, Atlanta won the season series, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-10, with the average run total being 8.37 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.53 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

The total has gone UNDER in five of Atlanta’s last fsx games
The total has gone UNDER in five of Atlanta’s last six games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against Atlanta

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Leading into Friday’s AL East matchup between Atlanta and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the slight favorite on the money line. Even though the Braves have struggled at the plate of late, they can lean on the fact that they have hit Aaron Nola well. In their two most recent games vs the right-hander, they have tagged him for 9 runs and won both matchups. I like Atlanta on the money line.

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