Brewers vs. Giants Best bet 7/14/22

by | Jul 14, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants
Date: Thursday, July 14th, 09:45 ET
Location: Oracle Park
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Money Line: Brewers -110 / Giants -110 (Sportsbetting.ag)
Total Line: 6.5

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.2)
San Francisco: Carlos Rodón (8-5, 2.7)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Luis Urías 3B
Victor Caratini C
Mike Brosseau 3B
Hunter Renfroe RF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Jonathan Davis CF
Andrew McCutchen RF
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Corbin Burnes P

Giants Projected Lineup

Thairo Estrada SS
Luis Gonzalez P
Brandon Belt 1B
LaMonte Wade Jr LF
Brandon Crawford SS
Wilmer Flores 2B
Joey Bart C
Joc Pederson OF
Mike Yastrzemski RF
Carlos Rodón P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Milwaukee Brewers: 49-40-0 SU / OU 43-41-5 / Run Line W/L 38-51-0
San Francisco Giants: 45-42-0 SU / OU 42-40-5 / Run Line W/L 42-45-0

The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, July 14th at Oracle Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:45 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Francisco as the favorite (-110), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Brewers will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Twins by the score of 4-1. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Brewers staff allowed 10 hits. On offense, the Brewers finished with 1 run on 4 hits. Milwaukee’s loss came as the underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. o Together, the Brewers and Twins stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. Milwaukee games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 43-41-5.

The Brewers will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -2. A key reason for Milwaukee’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.53. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 29 series played, going 13-10-6.

The Giants are coming off a tight 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits. At the plate, the Giants only came through for 4 runs on 9 hits. San Francisco picked up the win while being favored at -130.0. So far, the team has won 56% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Giants and Diamondbacks combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. San Francisco still has an above .500 over-under record at (42-40-5).

Across their last 5 contests, the Giants are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +27 (last 5). Compared to their season average, the Giants come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 7.0 runs per game. On the season, San Francisco has won more than half of their series, going 13-11-5.

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Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee will roll with Corbin Burnes (7-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Burnes has lasted an average of 6.24 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.2. So far, batters are hitting just 0.182 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Burnes is averaging 1.02 home runs allowed. On the season, Corbin Burnes has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 32.0%. This includes a per game average of 7.88 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Burnes is averaging 2.2 free passes per outing.

In today’s game, San Francisco turns to starter Carlos Rodón. For the year, he has a record of 8-5. In his previous outings, Rodón has lasted an average of 5.88 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.7. So far, batters are hitting just 0.204 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.36 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Overall, Carlos Rodón has struck out 31.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 7.29 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.88 walks per outing.

Milwaukee vs San Francisco History

Today’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants will be their 2nd meeting of the season. San Francisco holds the edge in the series at 1-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 0-1. The average run total in these games is 7.43 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.0 runs. Last season, Milwaukee picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 2-5. Last year, the Brewers and Giants averaged 7.43 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.57 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing San Francisco
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
  • San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Prediction

Heading into Thursday night’s matchup between Milwaukee and San Francisco, the odds suggest this game could go either way. However, I recommend taking the Giants to come away with the win, as Milwaukee’s bats are prone to falling silent vs top-end pitching. Even with Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Brewers, I still like San Francisco on the moneyline.

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