Brewers vs. Marlins Predictions 5/14/22

by | May 14, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins

Date: Saturday, May 14th, 06:10 ET

Location: LoanDepot park

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Money Line: Brewers -142 / Marlins +119 (Bovada - 50% bonus! Rebates on ALL your wagers; even if they win! FAST payouts and the BEST live betting platform on the web!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: Eric Lauer (3-0, 1.82)
Miami: Trevor Rogers (1-4, 5.0)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Kolten Wong 2B
Lorenzo Cain CF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Tyrone Taylor LF
Hunter Renfroe RF
Luis Urías 3B
Victor Caratini C
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Eric Lauer P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Miguel Rojas SS
Erik González SS
Avisaíl García RF
Bryan De La Cruz LF
Jacob Stallings C
Jorge Soler LF
Garrett Cooper 1B
Jasrado Chisholm Jr. 2B
Jesús Aguilar 3B
Trevor Rogers P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Milwaukee Brewers: 20-12-0 SU / OU 15-15-3 / Run Line W/L 15-18-0
Miami Marlins: 14-17-0 SU / OU 14-18-0 / Run Line W/L 17-15-0

The Miami Marlins host the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, May 14th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-142), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In the Milwaukee Brewers’ last game, they picked up a 2-1 win over Miami. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Miami to 1 run on 5 hits. The team was able to pick up the win despite scoring just 2 runs on their 6 hits. In the matchup, Milwaukee was favored at -150.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 29 of their games, winning at a rate of 66.0%. Together, the Brewers and Miami stayed below the OU line set at 6.0 runs. With this result, Milwaukee’s over-under record dropped back to .500 15-15-3.

Over the Brewers’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -13. In their last 5 contests, Milwaukee is averaging 5.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.88. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 12 series played, going 7-4-1.

The Marlins are coming off a tight loss to the Brewers, dropping the game 2-1. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Brewers to 2 runs and 6 hits. The Marlins’ offense ended the game with just 1 run on 5 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Miami went into the game as the underdog, getting 130.0. So far, the team has gone into 13 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 38.0%. Combined, the Marlins and the Brewers’ run total fell below the OU line of 6.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 14-18-0.

In their last 5 contests, Marlins have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -1 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate (4.0), similar to their season-long average of 4.03. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 4-7-0.

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Pitching Matchup

Eric Lauer gets the start for the Brewers, with an overall record of 3-0. In his previous outings, Lauer is lasting an average of 5.84, putting together an ERA of just 1.82. Hits have been hard to come by against the left-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.187. Home runs have been a concern for Lauer as he is allowing 1.23 per 9 innings. Per game, Eric Lauer is averaging 8.4, on a strikeout percentage of 36.0%. Throughout the season, Lauer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.43 per contest.

Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 1-4. So far, Rogers has put together an ERA of 5.0. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.5 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.26. So far, Rogers has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.67 home runs per 9 innings. Rogers has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 18.0% and a per-game average of 3.5. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.33 walks per outing.

Milwaukee vs Miami History

For the season, Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins will be playing their 1st game of the season. So far, Milwaukee is leading the season series, 1-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 0-1. The average run total in these games is 7.17 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.0 runs. When looking back to last season, Milwaukee and Miami split the season series, with each team picking up 3. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-1. Last year, the Brewers and Marlins averaged 7.17 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.83 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee’s last 9 games
  • Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins Prediction

In this matchup, I recommend taking the Brewers to pick up the win, as starter Eric Lauer is off to a tremendous start, with an FIP figure of just 2.85. Lauer doesn’t get a lot attention across the league. But dating back to last year, he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. Look for the Brewers to come up with a win over Miami.

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