Brewers vs. Padres Odds & Predictions 5/25/22

by | May 25, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
Date: Wednesday, May 25th, 04:10 ET
Location: Petco Park
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Brewers +113 / Padres -123 (SportsBetting.ag)
Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: Aaron Ashby (0-3, 3.49)
San Diego: Yu Darvish (4-1, 3.91)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Omar Narváez C
Lorenzo Cain CF
Andrew McCutchen LF
Hunter Renfroe RF
Jace Peterson 3B
Christian Yelich LF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Kolten Wong 2B
Luis Urías SS
Aaron Ashby P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Austin Nola C
Wil Myers RF
Luke Voit 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Jose Azocar CF
Jurickson Profar LF
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Yu Darvish P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Milwaukee Brewers: 27-16-0 SU / OU 19-21-3 / Run Line W/L 20-23-0
San Diego Padres: 28-15-0 SU / OU 20-23-0 / Run Line W/L 24-19-0

The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, May 25th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Milwaukee will be looking to tack on another win after taking down the San Diego by the score of 4-1. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited San Diego to 1 run on 8 hits. The Brewers lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 5 hits, leading to 4 runs. Heading into this game, Milwaukee was the betting favorite at -123.0. Through 39 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 64.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 6.5 runs. With this result, Milwaukee’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 19-21-3.

In the Brewers’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 7. Milwaukee comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 4.0 over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.63. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 15 series played, going 9-4-2.

San Diego is coming off a 3 run loss to Brewers. Dropping the game 4-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Brewers to 4 runs on 5 hits. With their 8 hits, the Padres could only muster 1 run. Leading into San Diego’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 113.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 15 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 53.0%. With this result, the Padres and the Brewers combined to fall below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 20-23-0.

Across their last 5 contests, the Padres are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of 9 (last 5). San Diego is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.8 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.40. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 8-3-3.

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee will roll with Aaron Ashby (0-3) as their starter. So far, Ashby has put together an ERA of 3.49. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 3.12 innings. Through 9 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.2. Home runs have also not been an issue for Ashby, as he’s giving up just 0.64 per 9. Ashby is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.77 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 28.00%. Command has been a problem for Ashby, as he is giving up 5.4 walks per outing.

The San Diego Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound with an overall record of 4-1. To date, Darvish has an ERA of 3.91 while lasting an average of 5.75 innings per appearance. Darvish comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.234. So far, Darvish has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.78 home runs per 9 innings. Up to this point, Darvish has a strikeout percentage of just 20.0% and a per game average of 4.625. Throughout the season, Darvish has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.15 per contest.

Milwaukee vs San Diego History

For the season, Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres will be playing their 2nd game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 1 time. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 0-2, with the average run total sitting at 6.57 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.0 runs. Last season, Milwaukee picked up the series win, 5 games to 2. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Brewers and Padres averaged 6.57 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.86 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
  • San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Prediction

Wednesday’s matchup between the Brewers and Padres will be the rubber match of the series, as the teams have split their first 2 games. Look for San Diego to pick up the home win, as Brewers starter Aaron Ashby has been bouncing around in and out of the rotation. In his last start, Ashby gave up 6 runs in 4 innings to the Braves. Look for the Padres to have a good day at the plate against the lefty.

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