Cardinals vs. Brewers Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated Jun 20, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals (38-30) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (38-30)

When: 8:10 p.m., Monday, June 20

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: STL +140/MIL -160 (BetNow – Use bonus code PREDICTEM to get a 100% real cash bonus up to $500!)

Runline: Cardinals +1.5/Brewers -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas (5-4, 2.62 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) vs. Corbin Burnes (4-4, 2.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

Tale of Two Pitchers

Which Miles Mikolas is going to show up to face the Brewers? He’s gone up against Milwaukee twice this season, with drastically differing results. In April, he came up to American Family Field and shut down the Brewers, holding Milwaukee to three hits and a single earned run in a 10-1 Cardinal rout. Six weeks later, the Brewers turned the tables in St. Louis, blasting Mikolas for a season-high nine hits and six runs in an 8-0 Milwaukee victory that caused Mikolas’ ERA to rise by 0.7 runs on its own.
So which Mikolas are we likely to get this time around? If the past two starts are any indication, the former is more likely, as Mikolas has pitched incredibly well on his past two trips to the mound. He was a hard-luck loser at Tampa Bay, giving up a mere two runs but coming out on the wrong side of a 2-1 loss after going through eight innings. But against Pittsburgh, he was even better, giving up one hit through 26 outs before giving way to the bullpen. American Family Field plays a bit deeper than Busch Stadium, which favors Mikolas, as his split of ground balls to fly balls is more extreme toward flies against the Brewers than anyone he’s pitched against in 2022. Against Milwaukee, just 10 of the 35 balls that the Brewers put into play against Mikolas were ground balls.

June Swoon

In that 8-0 disaster from a St. Louis perspective, there really wasn’t a lot Mikolas could have done because his opposite number was Corbin Burnes, who was on his game and stood the Cardinals on their heads, fanning 11 and holding St. Louis to a mere two hits. But since that strong showing, it has not been smooth sailing for the Milwaukee Ace, who failed to make it out of the fourth inning against San Diego and the fifth against Philadelphia. He did pick up his first win of June with a 10-2 rout of the Mets on Wednesday, which suggests that the start of the month was nothing more than a blip in what’s been an otherwise great season.
Regardless of whether his struggles here are real, he’s got the right opponent to break out of any perceived issue. The Cardinals have barely been able to scratch Burnes over the past year-plus, notching just four runs in 29 innings against him, an ERA of 1.24.


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Contact vs. Power

These are different types of teams in terms of how they get the job done at the plate, as St. Louis tends to manufacture runs while Milwaukee tries to bash the ball. The Cardinals rank fourth in the majors in batting average, hitting .256, while the Brewers are a far more modest 23rd at .234. Yet the Brewers still hold their own in scoring because they rank third in the majors in home runs with 88 long balls on the year.
The most pronounced difference in how these teams try to hit is how they look at strikeouts. Milwaukee’s grip it and rip it approach leads to quite a few K’s, as the Brewers have fanned 605 times on the season, an average of nearly nine per game. On the other hand, the Cardinals have only struck out 507 times on the season, which might suggest Burnes is going under his strikeout totals.

Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals are 1-5 in their past six road games.
  • The Cardinals are 1-8 in their past nine games as a road underdog.
  • The Brewers have won four straight as a favorite.
  • The Brewers are 3-8 in their past 11 games against a right-handed starter.
  • The Brewers have dropped six straight at home.
  • The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ past five games.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ past six games against the NL Central.
  • The under is 8-2 in the Brewers’ past 10 Monday games.
  • The over is 6-2 in the Brewers’ past eight home games.
  • The Cardinals are 6-2 in their past eight trips to Milwaukee.

Weather Report

The heat continues to ravage the Midwest, with temperatures hitting 88 degrees outside at first pitch. With that being the case, expect the Brewers to close the roof.

Dan’s pick

The Brewers are strangely not really built for their own park, as American Family Field isn’t as hitter-friendly as some of the other stadiums in the National League. That might be one reason why they’ve gone 5-2 in their past seven games, all of which were played on the road. With Burnes coming off two so-so showings out of three and Milwaukee not playing its best baseball at home as of late, this is too much value to pass up on St. Louis and Mikolas.

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