Cardinals vs. Nationals Pick – Game 4 Analysis

by | Oct 15, 2019 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) vs. Washington Nationals (93-69), 10/15/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Tuesday, Oct. 15
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Dakota Hudson (16-7, 3.31 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Patrick Corbin (14-9, 3.42, 1.20)

Moneyline: Nationals -160/Cardinals +145 (BetNow)
Over/Under: 7.5

After rolling to victory in Game 3 of this National League Championship Series Monday night, the Washington Nationals are one win away from their first World Series berth in franchise history. Can they finish off the Cardinals when the teams meet for Game 4 Tuesday night? And how are we playing this one with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened Washington and Corbin at around -160 for Game 4 over St. Louis and Hudson, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Nats could also be found getting around +135, giving the 1.5 runs on the MLB run line.

Cardinals vs. Nationals Game 4 Set-Up

Washington took the first two games of this NLCS in St. Louis over the weekend, then grabbed a stranglehold on this series with an 8-1 victory in Game 3 Monday night. The Nationals opened the scoring with four runs in the bottom of the third inning, then added two in the fifth and one in the sixth, on their way to the win and the cash as -120 favorites with Stephen Strasburg.

With Monday’s triumph, Washington is 7-2 in these MLB playoffs.

With Monday’s loss, the Cardinals are 3-5 in these playoffs.

St. Louis took the regular-season series from the Nationals five games to two.

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Game 4 Starting Arms

Lefty Corbin, by our stringent standards, is 21/34 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last three. He made two starts against the Dodgers in that National League divisional-round series, one good and one bad, and one relief appearance, giving up a total of seven earned runs and seven hits through eight innings of work. He then pitched a clean third of an inning of relief in Game 2 of this NLCS Saturday.

The Nationals are 21-13 with Corbin this season, 4-1 over his last five starts.

Over two starts this season against the Cardinals Corbin allowed six ER and 11 hits through 11 innings, with 16 strikeouts but also eight walks. Washington split those two games.

Rookie righty Hudson is 14/23 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last three. Eight days ago, in Game 2 of that NLDS against Atlanta, he gave up four runs, although only one was earned, and five hits through 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 St. Louis victory. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed seven runs – four earned – on ten hits and 11 walks through 12 2/3 innings.

The Cardinals are 23-10 with Hudson this year, 3-1 over his last four starts.

Over two starts against Washington, this season Hudson allowed three ER and nine hits through 13 innings. St. Louis split those games.

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Game 4 Batting Splits

St. Louis batted .247/.330/.425 against left-handed pitching this season. But Cardinals bats better get their shit together quick, after scoring a total of two runs on 11 hits through the first three games of this series. They also struck out 16 times Monday night.

Washington batted .258/.337/.448 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cardinals pen put up a 3.82 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP while holding foes to a ML-low .670 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the top three or four bullpens in Baseball this year.

The Nationals bullpen posted a ML-worst 5.66 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. So we rank this unit among the bottom three or four bullpens in Baseball. However, Washington relievers have closed out Washington wins each of their last five games.

MLB Betting Trends

  • St. Louis finished 41-40 on the road this season.
  • St. Louis played 18-16 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Washington finished 50-31 at home this season.
  • Washington played 69-52 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 85-69 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
  • Unders are 7-2-1 in Nationals-Cardinals games this season.
  • Overs played 41-35 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Unders are a combined 36-28 with Corbin and Hudson this season.

Free MLB Pick

Corbin gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, although St. Louis will go with an all-hands-on-deck approach, which somewhat negates that advantage. And we’ve got to figure Cardinals sticks will break loose at least once in this series, and it probably won’t happen against Strasburg or Scherzer. So we’re taking St. Louis at the underdog price for our free MLB pick on Game 4.